North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Creighton Bluejays: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 8:00 PM ETCHI Health Center Omaha · at Creighton

Final

#37CREICreighton75▲ winner

Closing lineCREI -29.5✓ UND covered by 14.5

Closing total155.5Under by 20.5

Season records: North Dakota and Creighton
UND	This season	CREI
1-3	Record	2-1
2-2	ATS	1-2
2-2	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UND 65–91 CREI · ✓ CREI (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UND	36	24	60
CREI	47	28	75

1st half: UND 36, CREI 47 (CREI by 11). The model had CREI by 15.0 and a total of 73.0 (actual 83).

Team stats

UND		CREI
23-60 38%	Field goals	26-63 41%
6-18 33%	3-pointers	8-38 21%
8-11 73%	Free throws	15-25 60%
30 9 off	Rebounds	50 21 off
8	Assists	16
7	Steals	6
0	Blocks	5
8	Turnovers	11
17	Fouls	10
32	Points in paint	36
0	Fast-break points	11

Players

UND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Marley Curtis F	32	14	4	0	4-7	3-5
Garrett Anderson G	32	5	6	3	2-10	1-2
Greyson Uelmen G	26	13	1	0	5-14	0-2
Eli King G	26	4	6	0	1-4	0-1
George Natsvlishvili F	25	10	7	1	5-9	0-0
Bench
Zach Kraft G	20	8	0	0	3-5	2-4
Anthony Smith III G	16	6	2	2	3-6	0-0
Matthew Bothun F	13	0	0	2	0-4	0-3
Karson Ouse F	8	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ryan Erikson F	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Reggie Thomas, Josh Jones, Anthony Doppler, Micah Curtis, Wylee Delorme

CREI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nik Graves G	32	9	3	3	2-10	1-7
Josh Dix G	31	16	2	1	5-13	2-7
Blake Harper G	26	19	12	3	6-11	4-8
Owen Freeman F	20	13	8	1	6-6	0-0
Jackson McAndrew F	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Jasen Green F	28	2	3	3	1-5	0-4
Hudson Greer G	14	1	7	4	0-3	0-3
Fedor Zugic G	14	4	2	0	2-4	0-2
Isaac Traudt F	10	0	0	0	0-4	0-4
Kerem Konan F	9	8	5	0	3-4	0-0
Austin Swartz G	6	0	3	1	0-0	0-0
Ty Davis G	2	3	0	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Aleksa Dimitrijevic, Liam McChesney, Josh Townley-Thomas, Shane Thomas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CREI -29.5	CREI -25.2	UND +4.3	W UND covered
Total	155.5	155.9	Over 0.4	L Under
Projected score	—	UND 65.4 · CREI 90.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CREI -15.0	CREI -11.0
1H total	73.0	83
1H projected score	UND 29 · CREI 44	UND 36 · CREI 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UND WLLW	2-2	50%	2-0	2-1
CREI LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UND away, as underdog; CREI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UND UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3
CREI UUU	0-3	0%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNDlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
CREIlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UND 0–1 CREICREI leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UND 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2022-23	UND 61 @ CREI 96	CREI -30.5	CREI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Dakota

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ALA	L 62-91	+36.5	W +7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 6	vsUCR	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 9	vsCSUN	L 85-93	+6.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 15	@UCR	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

+7.5

UCR

L 70-74

−5.5

CSUN

L 85-93

−1.5

UCR

W 76-74

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

−17.5

UCR

L 70-74

−2.5

CSUN

L 85-93

+19.5

UCR

W 76-74

+1.5

over 2under 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Creighton

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

over 0under 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Creighton Bluejays

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

North Dakota

Creighton

North Dakota

Creighton