UMass Lowell River Hawks at Bradley Braves: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 8:00 PM ETCarver Arena · at Bradley

Final

#167BRADBradley87▲ winner

Closing lineBRAD -21.5✓ UML covered by 11.5

Closing total149.5Over by 14.5

Season records: UMass Lowell and Bradley
UML	This season	BRAD
0-4	Record	1-3
0-4	ATS	1-3
3-1	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UML 68–84 BRAD · ✓ BRAD (93%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UML	43	34	77
BRAD	38	49	87

1st half: UML 43, BRAD 38 (UML by 5). The model had BRAD by 9.8 and a total of 71.1 (actual 81).

Team stats

UML		BRAD
25-52 48%	Field goals	29-56 52%
5-15 33%	3-pointers	10-20 50%
22-26 85%	Free throws	19-26 73%
28 9 off	Rebounds	32 12 off
13	Assists	17
3	Steals	8
4	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	10
19	Fouls	18
38	Points in paint	38
10	Fast-break points	18

Players

UML	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xavier Spencer G	39	11	8	2	4-8	1-2
Darrel Yepdo G	32	14	2	2	5-8	1-4
Austin Green F	31	13	5	1	4-8	0-0
Shawn Simmons II F	23	7	0	2	2-6	1-2
Jared Frey G	20	9	1	1	2-7	1-5
Bench
JJ Massaquoi F	22	18	4	1	6-9	0-0
Angel Montas Jr. G	18	5	2	3	2-5	1-1
Khalil Farmer G	12	0	3	1	0-1	0-1
Victor Okojie F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Isaiah Walter, Kris Johnson, Keenan Bey, Jerrell Roberson II

BRAD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alex Huibregtse G	35	13	8	4	5-12	3-8
AJ Smith F	33	20	4	1	7-9	4-4
Jaquan Johnson G	27	21	8	3	5-8	2-2
Ahmet Jonovic C	25	9	4	1	4-5	0-0
Timoty van der Knaap G	17	4	3	1	1-3	0-1
Bench
Demarion Burch G	28	8	2	1	2-6	1-2
Montana Wheeler G	20	4	0	6	1-5	0-2
Corey Thomas F	10	4	2	0	2-5	0-1
Kai Yu C	5	4	0	0	2-3	0-0

Did not play: Gus Rugaard, Dietrich Richardson, Matthew Zobrist, Jackson Seastrunk, Handy Toussaint III, Gustavo Guimares

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BRAD -21.5	BRAD -16.5	UML +5.0	W UML covered
Total	149.5	151.8	Over 2.3	W Over
Projected score	—	UML 67.6 · BRAD 84.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRAD -9.8	UML -5.0
1H total	71.1	81
1H projected score	UML 30.6 · BRAD 40.5	UML 43 · BRAD 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UML LLLL	0-4	0%	0-3	0-3
BRAD LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UML away, as underdog; BRAD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UML OUOO	3-1	75%	0-4
BRAD UUOU	1-3	25%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UMLlast 4	0-4 0%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
BRADlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UMass Lowell

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −11.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@CONN	L 47-110	+36.5	L −26.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 10	vsNHVN	L 67-73	-10.5	L −16.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 13	@COLU	L 72-86	+13.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	@WAKE	L 75-109	+30.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

−26.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−16.5

COLU

L 72-86

−0.5

WAKE

L 75-109

−3.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −11.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

+5.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−2.5

COLU

L 72-86

+1.5

WAKE

L 75-109

+18.5

over 3under 1avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bradley

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSBU	L 63-69	+1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCMU	W 85-54	-9.5	W +21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsUTM	L 67-78	-15.5	L −26.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 15	@SF	L 64-75	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−4.5

CMU

W 85-54

+21.5

UTM

L 67-78

−26.5

L 64-75

−1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SBU

L 63-69

−7.5

CMU

W 85-54

−8.5

UTM

L 67-78

+0.5

L 64-75

−7.5

over 1under 3avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UMass Lowell River Hawks at Bradley Braves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UMass Lowell

Bradley

UMass Lowell

Bradley