Creighton Bluejays vs Baylor Bears: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 2:00 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

#37CREICreighton74final

Final

#29BAYBaylor81▲ winner

Closing lineBAY -3.5✓ BAY covered by 3.5

Closing total154.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Creighton and Baylor
CREI	This season	BAY
3-1	Record	3-0
1-3	ATS	1-2
0-4	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CREI 79–80 BAY · ✓ BAY (55%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CREI	36	38	74
BAY	44	37	81

1st half: CREI 36, BAY 44 (BAY by 8). The model had BAY by 0.7 and a total of 74.2 (actual 80).

Team stats

CREI		BAY
27-58 47%	Field goals	31-72 43%
11-29 38%	3-pointers	7-18 39%
9-10 90%	Free throws	12-16 75%
28 8 off	Rebounds	45 22 off
12	Assists	15
5	Steals	8
3	Blocks	5
13	Turnovers	10
15	Fouls	12
28	Points in paint	38
20	Fast-break points	14

Players

CREI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Dix G	39	15	3	6	7-13	1-5
Jasen Green F	34	9	5	2	2-5	1-2
Nik Graves G	30	12	3	4	4-12	2-7
Blake Harper G	23	9	3	0	2-7	2-4
Owen Freeman F	9	4	1	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Hudson Greer G	23	16	3	0	7-8	2-2
Isaac Traudt F	12	6	2	0	2-5	2-5
Kerem Konan F	12	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Austin Swartz G	9	0	3	0	0-1	0-1
Fedor Zugic G	9	3	0	0	1-3	1-3

Did not play: Liam McChesney, Ty Davis, Shane Thomas, Josh Townley-Thomas, Jackson McAndrew, Aleksa Dimitrijevic

BAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Obi Agbim G	36	13	4	2	5-13	2-6
Cameron Carr G	34	21	9	3	7-16	0-0
Dan Skillings Jr. G	33	14	8	0	6-14	2-6
Tounde Yessoufou G	32	11	5	1	4-12	2-4
Michael Rataj G	27	10	3	5	4-10	0-1
Bench
Caden Powell C	21	7	7	1	3-3	0-0
Isaac Williams IV G	14	5	3	3	2-4	1-1
JJ White G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: James Goodis, Will Kuykendall, Juslin Bodo Bodo, Andre Iguodala II, Drew Perry, Mayo Soyoye, Maikcol Perez

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BAY -3.5	BAY -1.4	CREI +2.1	L BAY covered
Total	154.5	158.4	Over 3.9	W Over
Projected score	—	CREI 78.5 · BAY 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BAY -0.7	BAY -8.0
1H total	74.2	80
1H projected score	CREI 36.8 · BAY 37.4	CREI 36 · BAY 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CREI LLWL	1-3	25%	—	0-1
BAY LWL	1-2	33%	—	1-2

Venue/role: CREI neutral site, as underdog; BAY neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CREI UUUU	0-4	0%	3-1
BAY OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CREIlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	0-4 0%
BAYlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CREI 1–0 BAYCREI leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CREI 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2022-23	CREI 85 vs BAY 76	BAY +1.5	CREI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Creighton

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −9.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −10 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 19	vsUND	W 75-60	-29.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

UND

W 75-60

−14.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

UND

W 75-60

−20.5

over 0under 4avg −10 ptslonger = bigger margin

Baylor

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRGV	W 96-81	-24.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 9	vsWASH	W 78-69	-6.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsTAR	W 94-81	-23.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

−9.5

WASH

W 78-69

+2.5

TAR

W 94-81

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

+22.5

WASH

W 78-69

−9.5

TAR

W 94-81

+25.5

over 2under 1avg +12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Creighton vs Baylor

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Creighton

Baylor

Creighton

Baylor