Jacksonville Dolphins vs Bethune-Cookman Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 2:00 PM ETOcean Center · Neutral site

#223JAXJacksonville69▲ winner

Final

#202BCUBethune64final

Closing lineBCU -3.5✓ JAX covered by 8.5

Closing total143.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Jacksonville and Bethune
JAX	This season	BCU
1-3	Record	1-3
2-2	ATS	3-1
1-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JAX 72–77 BCU · ✗ BCU (64%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JAX	30	39	69
BCU	30	34	64

1st half: JAX 30, BCU 30 (tied). The model had BCU by 2.4 and a total of 69.8 (actual 60).

Team stats

JAX		BCU
25-53 47%	Field goals	24-54 44%
5-17 29%	3-pointers	4-18 22%
14-25 56%	Free throws	12-24 50%
38 10 off	Rebounds	32 9 off
12	Assists	14
6	Steals	6
2	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	9
21	Fouls	15
38	Points in paint	32
9	Fast-break points	11

Players

JAX	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaylen Jones G	32	10	6	4	3-5	0-1
Hayden Wood G	29	15	5	0	5-7	2-2
Donovan Rivers F	21	13	6	0	6-10	0-0
Chris Lockett Jr. G	15	7	2	0	2-3	1-1
Jason Thirdkill Jr. F	15	8	3	0	4-6	0-1
Bench
Evan Sterck G	26	7	3	7	2-7	1-3
Chris Arias G	26	0	4	0	0-7	0-7
Allen Udemadu F	16	6	1	0	2-2	0-0
Michael Harper Jr. G	8	0	1	1	0-3	0-0
Enrico Borio F	8	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Charles Caporaso C	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Simon Wheeler, Jaylen Jordon, Roman Loux, Lamont Jackson, Anakin Brown, Tito Deng

BCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jakobi Heady G	38	19	4	1	6-12	2-6
Arterio Morris G	31	8	5	5	4-10	0-4
Quentin Heady F	27	6	6	0	3-10	0-1
Jordan Johnson G	25	8	2	2	3-6	1-4
Daniel Perez-Rouzan F	23	12	6	3	5-8	0-0
Bench
Ariel Bland F	22	6	5	1	2-3	0-0
Seneca Willoughby G	20	5	0	2	1-3	1-3
Rickey Mitchell Jr. G	14	0	2	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: David Onanina, Dailon Minor, Trayvon Barbary, Reggie Ward Jr., Simeon Womack, William Gonzalez, Doctor Bradley, Tyler Andrews

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BCU -3.5	BCU -4.2	BCU +0.7	L JAX covered
Total	143.5	148.9	Over 5.4	L Under
Projected score	—	JAX 72.4 · BCU 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BCU -2.4	PK
1H total	69.8	60
1H projected score	JAX 33.7 · BCU 36.1	JAX 30 · BCU 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
JAX WLWL	2-2	50%	—	1-2
BCU WLWW	3-1	75%	—	—

Venue/role: JAX neutral site, as underdog; BCU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX OUUU	1-3	25%	1-3
BCU OOOU	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAXlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
BCUlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jacksonville

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MIA	L 69-86	+18.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 155
Nov 11	@HPU	L 64-85	+17.5	L −3.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 15	@VMI	W 69-67	-1.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 18	@GMU	L 57-79	+16.5	L −5.5	136.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

L 69-86

+1.5

HPU

L 64-85

−3.5

VMI

W 69-67

+0.5

GMU

L 57-79

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

L 69-86

+12.5

HPU

L 64-85

−7.5

VMI

W 69-67

−15.5

GMU

L 57-79

−0.5

over 1under 3avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bethune

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +13.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AUB	L 90-95	+24.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	@MIA	L 61-101	+16.5	L −23.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 15	@DAY	L 82-91	+21.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@OHIO	W 76-73	+6.5	W +9.5	157.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AUB

L 90-95

+19.5

MIA

L 61-101

−23.5

DAY

L 82-91

+12.5

OHIO

W 76-73

+9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AUB

L 90-95

+31.5

MIA

L 61-101

+7.5

DAY

L 82-91

+24.5

OHIO

W 76-73

−8.5

over 3under 1avg +13.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jacksonville Dolphins vs Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Jacksonville

Bethune

Jacksonville

Bethune