Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Dayton Flyers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 7:30 PM ETUD Arena · at Dayton

#202BCUBethune82final

Final

#91DAYDayton91▲ winner

Closing lineDAY -21.5✓ BCU covered by 12.5

Closing total148.5Over by 24.5

Season records: Bethune and Dayton
BCU	This season	DAY
0-2	Record	2-1
1-1	ATS	1-2
2-0	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BCU 68–83 DAY · ✓ DAY (91%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BCU	39	43	82
DAY	45	46	91

1st half: BCU 39, DAY 45 (DAY by 6). The model had DAY by 9.2 and a total of 70.7 (actual 84).

Team stats

BCU		DAY
33-68 49%	Field goals	27-50 54%
7-20 35%	3-pointers	11-19 58%
9-15 60%	Free throws	26-32 81%
32 15 off	Rebounds	36 11 off
12	Assists	19
7	Steals	3
2	Blocks	4
10	Turnovers	13
24	Fouls	14
48	Points in paint	32
13	Fast-break points	12

Players

BCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jakobi Heady G	37	17	6	3	7-14	1-4
Quentin Heady F	32	12	5	1	5-9	0-1
Jordan Johnson G	20	5	1	0	2-8	1-6
Daniel Perez-Rouzan F	20	6	6	1	3-8	0-0
Seneca Willoughby G	18	10	0	2	3-5	2-3
Bench
Arterio Morris G	33	19	3	3	8-17	1-4
Ariel Bland F	24	7	5	2	3-4	0-0
Rickey Mitchell Jr. G	13	6	1	0	2-3	2-2
David Onanina C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Reggie Ward Jr., William Gonzalez, Trayvon Barbary, Dailon Minor, Tyler Andrews, Doctor Bradley, Simeon Womack

DAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javon Bennett G	37	25	5	5	7-13	4-7
Keonte Jones G	36	11	8	3	2-5	1-1
De'Shayne Montgomery G	34	16	4	2	6-10	4-5
Amal L'Etang F	33	18	10	3	7-9	2-3
Jordan Derkack G	30	10	2	6	3-5	0-0
Bench
Bryce Heard G	13	4	1	0	1-6	0-3
Jacob Conner F	10	3	1	0	1-2	0-0
Jaiun Simon F	7	4	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Damon Friery, Adam Njie, Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey, Jaron McKie, Malcolm Thomas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DAY -21.5	DAY -15.4	BCU +6.1	W BCU covered
Total	148.5	151.0	Over 2.5	W Over
Projected score	—	BCU 67.8 · DAY 83.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAY -9.2	DAY -6.0
1H total	70.7	84
1H projected score	BCU 30.8 · DAY 39.9	BCU 39 · DAY 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BCU WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1
DAY WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: BCU away, as underdog; DAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BCU OO	2-0	100%	0-2
DAY UUU	0-3	0%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BCUlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%
DAYlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bethune

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +19.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AUB	L 90-95	+24.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	@MIA	L 61-101	+16.5	L −23.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AUB

L 90-95

+19.5

MIA

L 61-101

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AUB

L 90-95

+31.5

MIA

L 61-101

+7.5

over 2under 0avg +19.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Dayton

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAN	W 88-48	-25.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	vsUMBC	W 77-71	-25.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@CIN	L 62-74	+5.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

+14.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−19.5

CIN

L 62-74

−6.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

−6.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−6.5

CIN

L 62-74

−11.5

over 0under 3avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Dayton Flyers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bethune

Dayton

Bethune

Dayton