Fifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati
Closing line
CIN -5.5✓ CIN covered by 6.5
CIN -5.5✓ CIN covered by 6.5Closing total147.5Under by 11.5
 DAY | This season | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Record | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | ATS | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | O/U | 1-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DAY 68–76 CIN · ✓ CIN (77%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAY | 26 | 36 | 62 |
| CIN | 33 | 41 | 74 |
1st half: DAY 26, CIN 33 (CIN by 7). The model had CIN by 5.0 and a total of 67.3 (actual 59).
Team stats
| DAY | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-62 32% | Field goals | 21-45 47% |
| 2-26 8% | 3-pointers | 9-19 47% |
| 20-27 74% | Free throws | 23-37 62% |
| 33 6 off | Rebounds | 43 6 off |
| 11 | Assists | 16 |
| 12 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 7 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 24 |
| 24 | Fouls | 25 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett G | 38 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3-15 | 1-10 |
| Keonte Jones G | 32 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-0 |
| Amal L'Etang F | 29 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 4-11 | 1-6 |
| De'Shayne Montgomery G | 29 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-2 |
| Jacob Conner F | 18 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Derkack G | 26 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Jaiun Simon F | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Bryce Heard G | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Malcolm Thomas F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jaron McKie, Evan Dickey, Will Maxwell, Makai Grant, Damon Friery, Adam Njie
| CIN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day Day Thomas G | 32 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Kerr Kriisa G | 31 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Baba Miller F | 31 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-2 |
| Moustapha Thiam C | 25 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Shon Abaev F | 19 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Celestine G | 18 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Sencire Harris G | 18 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Tyler McKinley F | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Keyshuan Tillery G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Halvine Dzellat C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Grant Darbyshire, Jalen Haynes, Bryson Buckingham, Lucas Atauri
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCIN -5.5
ModelCIN -8.5
Model edgeCIN +3.0
W CIN covered
Total
Market147.5
Model143.7
Model edgeUnder 3.8
W Under
Projected score
DAY 67.6 · CIN 76.1
DAY 62 · CIN 74
Win probability
CIN 77%
1st half
Spread
CIN -5.0
CIN -7.0
Total
67.3
59 points
Projected score
DAY 31.2 · CIN 36.2
DAY 26 · CIN 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCIN -6.5
1 → DAY
CloseCIN -5.5
1 pt toward DAY
Total
Open146.5
▲ 1
Close147.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
DAY +200 · CIN -240
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CIN -6.5 · closed CIN -5.5 · moved 1 toward DAYmodel CIN -8.5
model CIN -8.5
Opened 146.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 1 upmodel 143.5
model 143.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAYlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% | 0-2 0% |
| CINlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
DAY 1–1 CINSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · DAY 1-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024-25 | CIN 66 vs DAY 59 | DAY +3.5 | CIN W |
| Dec 16, 2023-24 | DAY 82 vs CIN 68 | CIN -5.5 | DAY W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Dayton
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-2
0% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vs
UMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
over 0under 2avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cincinnati
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
WCU
WCUW 94-63
+8.5
7
vs
GAST
GASTW 74-64
−19.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+13.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−13.5
over 1under 1avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Dayton
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UMBC77–71
- Wvs Canisius88–48
3 days since their last game.
Cincinnati
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgia St74–64
- Wvs W Carolina94–63
4 days since their last game.