UTEP Miners vs Northern Kentucky Norse: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 2:00 PM ETSanford Pentagon · Neutral site

#190UTEPUTEP

LineUTEP -2.5no move

Total148.5no move

Season records: UTEP and N Kentucky
UTEP	This season	NKU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTEP 74–73 · win probability UTEP 52%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

UTEP -2.5

no move since the open

Total

148.5

model 147.2 · Under by 1.5

Model edge

NKU by 2

model vs market

Public on the spread

96% NKU

50% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NKU has more of the edges

UTEP 1, NKU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NKUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTEP 26.2%, NKU 32.2%. Defensive: UTEP 67.2%, NKU 68.4%

Context

Schedule so far

UTEP has played the 163rd-hardest schedule, NKU the 289th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: UTEP plays 66.6 a game (291st fastest), NKU 71.5 (55th). Faster games mean more points

UTEPSmall

Three-pointers

UTEP hits 33.9% and allows 34.0%; NKU hits 33.6% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 40.3% and 44.9% of their shots

NKUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTEP 33.4, NKU 35.9. Allowed: UTEP 42.0, NKU 37.2

NKUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTEP 17.4%, NKU 16.3%. Forced: UTEP 18.0%, NKU 18.6%

NKUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTEP 48.3 and allows 51.5; NKU 53.2 and allows 54.2

NKUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTEP 0%, NKU 26%. Transfers in: UTEP 7, NKU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

NKU offense vs UTEP defense

Offense 209th of 366 against a defense 173rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

UTEP offense vs NKU defense

Offense 226th of 366 against a defense 249th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Neutral-site favorites of under 3	576	53%	48%	48%
Non-conference games at this spread	1094	54%	49%	50%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5	3547	74%	49%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUTEP -2.5

no move

NowUTEP -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open148.5

no move

Now148.5

No change since the open

Moneyline

UTEP -152 · NKU +126

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened UTEP -2.5 · unchangedmodel UTEP -0.5

model UTEP -0.5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

UTEP -2.5Spread

NKU +2.5

Bets

96%

Money

50%50%

Money leans UTEP -2.5 · 46 pts more of the money than of the bets

Over 148.5TotalUnder 148.5

Bets

44%56%

Money

46%54%

UTEPWinner

NKU

Bets

74%26%

Money

94%

Money is 20 pts ahead of bets on UTEP

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UTEP	NKU	Over	Under	UTEP	NKU
BetMGMMGM	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	148.5-115	148.5-105	-150	+125
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-105	-3-115	149-105	149-115	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+1.5-114	-1.5-109	149.5-110	149.5-113	-134	+108
BetUSBetUS	+3-105	-3-115	149-105	149-115	-155	+134
BovadaBovada	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	149.5-110	149.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	148.5-112	148.5-108	-155	+130
FanDuelFD	+2.5-120	-2.5-102	148.5-114	148.5-106	-152	+126
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3-101	-3-111	149-103	149-113	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	UTEP -2.5	UTEP -0.6	NKU +1.9
Total	148.5	147.2	Under 1.3
Projected score	—	UTEP 73.8 · NKU 73.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTEP -0.5	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	UTEP 34.6 · NKU 34.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UTEP WLLWL	13-15	46%	0-2	1-3
NKU WLWWL	13-18	42%	1-1	3-6

Venue/role: UTEP neutral site, as favorite; NKU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UOOOU	13-15	46%	8-20
NKU UOOOO	21-10	68%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NKU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UTEP

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs UIW	No recent meeting
Nov 12	vs NMSU	L63–67WU
Nov 15	vs FAMU	W67–53WU

N Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ SDAK	No recent meeting
Nov 6	@ TA&M	No recent meeting
Nov 10	@ SLU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UTEP

28 games played

Straight up

8-20

29% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2029%

L L L L L L L W L L L W L W L W L L W L W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1546%

L L L L W W L W L L L W L W W W L L W W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1546%

U U U U O U O O O O U O U O O O U U U U O U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsLMU	L 58-71	-1.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 15	@USU	L 51-75	+16.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsW&M	L 63-74	+2.5	L −8.5	159.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsUAB	L 59-75	+8.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 7	@SEA	L 68-75	+12.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 13	@HAW	L 61-66	+12.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 127
Dec 21	vsNORF	L 71-72	-10.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsNDSU	W 76-66	+2.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 142
Dec 29	@LT	L 63-75	+2.5	L −9.5	130.5	O 138
Jan 2	@MOST	L 55-79	+3.5	L −20.5	131.5	O 134
Jan 4	@FIU	L 64-76	+6.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 140
Jan 8	vsMTSU	W 83-80	+3.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsWKU	L 56-68	+3.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 124
Jan 15	@DEL	W 70-69	+1.5	W +2.5	125.5	O 139
Jan 17	@LIB	L 69-80	+13.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 149
Jan 22	vsFIU	W 83-77	+1.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 160
Jan 24	vsMOST	L 57-62	+1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 119
Jan 28	vsLT	L 59-69	-2.5	L −12.5	130.5	U 128
Jan 31	vsDEL	W 70-55	-6.5	W +8.5	128.5	U 125
Feb 4	@SHSU	L 66-70	+10.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsNMSU	W 91-88	+1.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 179
Feb 11	@JXST	W 69-64	+6.5	W +11.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 14	vsLIB	L 64-73	+6.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@NMSU	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 130
Feb 26	@MTSU	L 67-77	+8.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 144
Feb 28	@WKU	L 65-97	+9.5	L −22.5	145.5	O 162
Mar 5	vsKENN	W 78-71	+3.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 149
Mar 7	vsJXST	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LMU

L 58-71

−14.5

USU

L 51-75

−7.5

W&M

L 63-74

−8.5

UAB

L 59-75

−7.5

SEA

L 68-75

+5.5

HAW

L 61-66

+7.5

NORF

L 71-72

−11.5

NDSU

W 76-66

+12.5

L 63-75

−9.5

MOST

L 55-79

−20.5

FIU

L 64-76

−5.5

MTSU

W 83-80

+6.5

WKU

L 56-68

−8.5

DEL

W 70-69

+2.5

LIB

L 69-80

+2.5

FIU

W 83-77

+7.5

MOST

L 57-62

−3.5

L 59-69

−12.5

DEL

W 70-55

+8.5

SHSU

L 66-70

+6.5

NMSU

W 91-88

+4.5

JXST

W 69-64

+11.5

LIB

L 64-73

−2.5

NMSU

L 63-67

+3.5

MTSU

L 67-77

−1.5

WKU

L 65-97

−22.5

KENN

W 78-71

+10.5

JXST

L 61-64

−1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LMU

L 58-71

−15.5

USU

L 51-75

−23.5

W&M

L 63-74

−22.5

UAB

L 59-75

−12.5

SEA

L 68-75

+6.5

HAW

L 61-66

−11.5

NORF

L 71-72

+6.5

NDSU

W 76-66

+2.5

L 63-75

+7.5

MOST

L 55-79

+2.5

FIU

L 64-76

−12.5

MTSU

W 83-80

+25.5

WKU

L 56-68

−20.5

DEL

W 70-69

+13.5

LIB

L 69-80

+11.5

FIU

W 83-77

+8.5

MOST

L 57-62

−20.5

L 59-69

−2.5

DEL

W 70-55

−3.5

SHSU

L 66-70

−9.5

NMSU

W 91-88

+40.5

JXST

W 69-64

−1.5

LIB

L 64-73

−2.5

NMSU

L 63-67

−12.5

MTSU

L 67-77

+4.5

WKU

L 65-97

+16.5

KENN

W 78-71

+0.5

JXST

L 61-64

−14.5

over 13under 15avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Kentucky

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-10

68% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L L W W W W W L W L L W W W W L W L L L L L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1842%

L L W W W W W L L L L W L W W L W L L L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

21-1068%

O U O U O U O O O U O O U O U O O O O O U O U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 20	@CMU	W 90-66	+4.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsEKU	W 82-71	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 26	vsWOF	W 93-83	-3.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsBU	W 74-65	-7.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsCLE	W 95-80	-14.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 6	@PFW	L 77-79	+1.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 13	@BELL	W 80-76	-4.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 156
Dec 17	vsOAK	L 77-82	-3.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 21	vsCOFC	L 74-85	-5.5	L −16.5	153.5	O 159
Dec 29	@RMU	W 79-77	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 1	vsIUIN	W 81-72	-13.5	L −4.5	176.5	U 153
Jan 4	vsYSU	W 94-79	-4.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 173
Jan 9	@MILW	W 85-67	+1.5	W +19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	@GB	L 78-80	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 15	vsDETM	W 96-71	-10.5	W +14.5	159.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsRMU	L 89-92	-7.5	L −10.5	153.5	O 181
Jan 24	@WRST	L 80-88	+1.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 168
Jan 30	@DETM	L 77-90	-5.5	L −18.5	161.5	O 167
Feb 1	@OAK	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	166.5	U 141
Feb 4	vsGB	L 84-87	-7.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 171
Feb 7	vsMILW	W 67-62	-6.5	L −1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 12	@IUIN	W 84-81	-5.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 165
Feb 18	vsPFW	W 87-71	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 158
Feb 22	@YSU	L 58-64	+2.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 25	@CLE	W 81-70	-8.5	W +2.5	166.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsWRST	L 91-92	-3.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 183
Mar 4	@OAK	W 85-84	+1.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 169
Mar 8	vsGB	W 96-76	-3.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 172
Mar 9	vsWRST	L 90-103	-1.5	L −14.5	157.5	O 193

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

CMU

W 90-66

+28.5

EKU

W 82-71

+6.5

WOF

W 93-83

+6.5

W 74-65

+1.5

CLE

W 95-80

+0.5

PFW

L 77-79

−0.5

BELL

W 80-76

−0.5

OAK

L 77-82

−8.5

COFC

L 74-85

−16.5

RMU

W 79-77

+0.5

IUIN

W 81-72

−4.5

YSU

W 94-79

+10.5

MILW

W 85-67

+19.5

L 78-80

−6.5

DETM

W 96-71

+14.5

RMU

L 89-92

−10.5

WRST

L 80-88

−6.5

DETM

L 77-90

−18.5

OAK

L 65-76

−7.5

L 84-87

−10.5

MILW

W 67-62

−1.5

IUIN

W 84-81

−2.5

PFW

W 87-71

+10.5

YSU

L 58-64

−3.5

CLE

W 81-70

+2.5

WRST

L 91-92

−4.5

OAK

W 85-84

+2.5

W 96-76

+16.5

WRST

L 90-103

−14.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

CMU

W 90-66

+9.5

EKU

W 82-71

−3.5

WOF

W 93-83

+26.5

W 74-65

−4.5

CLE

W 95-80

+16.5

PFW

L 77-79

+2.5

BELL

W 80-76

+9.5

OAK

L 77-82

−4.5

COFC

L 74-85

+5.5

RMU

W 79-77

+6.5

IUIN

W 81-72

−23.5

YSU

W 94-79

+26.5

MILW

W 85-67

−5.5

L 78-80

+13.5

DETM

W 96-71

+7.5

RMU

L 89-92

+27.5

WRST

L 80-88

+12.5

DETM

L 77-90

+5.5

OAK

L 65-76

−25.5

L 84-87

+21.5

MILW

W 67-62

−27.5

IUIN

W 84-81

+0.5

PFW

W 87-71

+4.5

YSU

L 58-64

−30.5

CLE

W 81-70

−15.5

WRST

L 91-92

+29.5

OAK

W 85-84

+7.5

W 96-76

+25.5

WRST

L 90-103

+35.5

over 21under 10avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UTEP has the better starters

Position by position: UTEP 2, N Kentucky 0, even 3

UTEPBetterN Kentucky

G L. Moeller TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.7 ast Score 46

UTEPBig

G E. Elliott4.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.4 ast Score 3

G J. Whiting TR10.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

Even

G E. Acker TR5.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 38

G R. Miller TR12.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 66

Even

F N. Pagotto TR10.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1 ast Score 68

G R. Jackson TR6.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

Even

F W. Shortt TR6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

F R. Cason TR3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 43

UTEPSmall

F D. Rakotonanahary3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25

UTEPBetterN Kentucky

UTEP offense226th of 366 · -6.9

Even

NKU defense249th of 366 · -6.5

UTEP defense173rd of 366 · -3.9

Even

NKU offense209th of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-3.1 · 4 players

UTEPSmall

Backcourt-5.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players

Bench-1.1 · 2 players

UTEPSmall

Bench-2.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUTEP betterNKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UTEP

Guards

L. Moeller33 min · TRJ. Whiting32 min · TRR. Miller25 min · TRR. Jackson18 min · TRC. McDanielsNewD. CrissNew

Forwards

R. Cason15 min · TRA. Cassia10 min · TRJ. Ratowski7 min · TRM. KelvinNewI. WardNewI. PerasovicNew

Centers

D. TarpleyNew

N Kentucky

Guards

E. Elliott29 minE. Acker19 min · TRB. Davis-Ray7 min · TRB. Darbyshire6 minJ. ApathjangNewW. FosterNew

Forwards

N. Pagotto27 min · TRW. Shortt20 min · TRD. Rakotonanahary12 minR. Tolliver6 minJ. RuizNewP. Otto MaeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTEP66.4 #340

NKU80.9 #47

Points per possession

UTEP1.00 #326

NKU1.13 #81

Pace (possessions)

UTEP66.6 #291

NKU71.5 #55

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTEP48.3 #309

NKU53.2 #93

3-point %

UTEP33.9 #178

NKU33.6 #193

3-point attempt rate

UTEP40.3 #163

NKU44.9 #71

Free throw rate

UTEP33.4 #227

NKU35.9 #158

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTEP17.4 #229

NKU16.3 #158

Offensive rebound rate

UTEP26.2 #319

NKU32.2 #117

Assists per game

UTEP11.0 #338

NKU15.5 #65

Defense

Points allowed

UTEP72.7 #125

NKU78.7 #284

Points allowed per possession

UTEP1.09 #196

NKU1.10 #225

Opponent effective FG%

UTEP51.5 #187

NKU54.2 #305

Opponent 3-point %

UTEP34.0 #182

NKU36.6 #333

Turnovers forced

UTEP18.0 #98

NKU18.6 #66

Defensive rebound rate

UTEP67.2 #293

NKU68.4 #236

Steals per game

UTEP7.1 #113

NKU8.3 #25

Blocks per game

UTEP3.5 #149

NKU3.5 #134

UTEP		NKU
Scoring
66.4 #340	Points per game	80.9 #47
1.00 #326	Points per possession	1.13 #81
66.6 #291	Pace (possessions)	71.5 #55
Shooting
48.3 #309	Effective FG%	53.2 #93
33.9 #178	3-point %	33.6 #193
40.3 #163	3-point attempt rate	44.9 #71
33.4 #227	Free throw rate	35.9 #158
Possessions
17.4 #229	Turnover rate	16.3 #158
26.2 #319	Offensive rebound rate	32.2 #117
11.0 #338	Assists per game	15.5 #65
Defense
72.7 #125	Points allowed	78.7 #284
1.09 #196	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #225
51.5 #187	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #305
34.0 #182	Opponent 3-point %	36.6 #333
18.0 #98	Turnovers forced	18.6 #66
67.2 #293	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #236
7.1 #113	Steals per game	8.3 #25
3.5 #149	Blocks per game	3.5 #134

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UTEP

8-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Jax State61–64
Wvs Kennesaw St78–71
L@ Western KY65–97
L@ MTSU67–77
L@ New Mexico St63–67

A week or more of rest.

N Kentucky

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-11 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wright St90–103
Wvs Green Bay96–76
W@ Oakland85–84
Lvs Wright St91–92
W@ Cleveland St81–70

A week or more of rest.