IU Indianapolis Jaguars at Northern Kentucky Norse: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 1, 2:00 PM ETTruist Arena · at N Kentucky · Conference game

#340IUINIU Indy72final

Final

#230NKUN Kentucky81▲ winner

Closing lineNKU -13.5✓ IUIN covered by 4.5

Closing total176.5Under by 23.5

Season records: IU Indy and N Kentucky
IUIN	This season	NKU
2-11	Record	7-5
4-9	ATS	6-6
4-9	O/U	8-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: IUIN 79–93 NKU · ✓ NKU (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
IUIN	39	33	72
NKU	35	46	81

1st half: IUIN 39, NKU 35 (IUIN by 4). The model had NKU by 8.2 and a total of 80.5 (actual 74).

Team stats

IUIN		NKU
28-64 44%	Field goals	27-55 49%
10-31 32%	3-pointers	12-25 48%
6-6 100%	Free throws	15-25 60%
34 10 off	Rebounds	29 9 off
13	Assists	14
8	Steals	9
2	Blocks	0
15	Turnovers	11
20	Fouls	9
30	Points in paint	30
7	Fast-break points	12

Players

IUIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Finley Woodward F	36	10	6	5	5-10	0-0
Kyler D'Augustino G	35	20	3	3	7-19	2-8
Maguire Mitchell G	20	7	2	0	3-9	1-6
Kameron Tinsley F	18	10	2	1	3-5	3-5
Gabe Stewart F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Jaxon Edwards G	24	7	3	2	3-6	0-2
Micah Davis G	23	6	2	1	2-6	2-5
Reece Hagy F	13	2	4	1	1-1	0-0
Matt Compas G	12	4	2	0	2-3	0-0
Aiden Miller F	11	6	5	0	2-4	2-4
Lav Cvetkovic F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Garrett Sever, JP Dragas, Corey Boston, Ajay Holubar

NKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ethan Elliott G	34	7	3	7	2-6	2-4
LJ Wells F	29	14	9	2	4-6	0-0
Tae Dozier G	26	10	2	3	3-6	2-3
Dan Gherezgher G	26	17	1	1	6-8	5-7
Kael Robinson F	19	6	1	1	3-7	0-2
Bench
Donovan Oday G	27	18	3	0	6-12	2-6
Donovan Rakotonanahary F	23	5	7	0	2-4	0-0
Shawn Nelson G	12	4	1	0	1-6	1-3
Ryan Tolliver F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Addison Archer, Juanma Ruiz, JJ Apathjang, Bryce Darbyshire, Mitchel Minor

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NKU -13.5	NKU -13.9	NKU +0.4	L IUIN covered
Total	176.5	172.1	Under 4.4	W Under
Projected score	—	IUIN 79.1 · NKU 93

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NKU -8.2	IUIN -4.0
1H total	80.5	74
1H projected score	IUIN 36.2 · NKU 44.4	IUIN 39 · NKU 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IUIN LLLWL	4-9	31%	3-5	3-5
NKU LLLLW	6-6	50%	4-2	5-3

Venue/role: IUIN away, as underdog; NKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IUIN UUUUO	4-9	31%	2-11
NKU OOUOO	8-4	67%	7-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IUIN	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
NKU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

IUIN 0–7 NKUNKU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · NKU has won the last 7 meetings · IUIN 4-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 23, 2024-25	IUIN 67 @ NKU 71	NKU -8.5	IUIN W
Dec 7, 2024-25	NKU 66 @ IUIN 64	IUIN +7.5	IUIN W
Feb 25, 2023-24	IUIN 64 @ NKU 80	NKU -17.5	IUIN W
Dec 2, 2023-24	NKU 71 @ IUIN 55	IUIN +9.5	NKU W
Feb 12, 2022-23	IUIN 47 @ NKU 86	NKU -16.5	NKU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

IU Indy

13 games played

Straight up

2-11

15% wins

Against the spread

4-9

31% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-9

31% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1115%

L L L W L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-931%

W L L W L L L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-931%

O U U U O U O U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OSU	L 102-118	+33.5	W +17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 6	vsLIU	L 90-94	-4.5	L −8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 8	@BTLR	L 80-112	+20.5	L −11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 14	@EMU	W 90-83	+4.5	W +11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@CHSO	L 91-103	-1.5	L −13.5	188.5	O 194
Nov 21	vsALST	L 80-101	-2.5	L −23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	@AF	L 85-98	+3.5	L −9.5	175.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsMORE	W 85-80	-3.5	W +1.5	181.5	U 165
Dec 3	@DETM	L 78-92	+3.5	L −10.5	180.5	U 170
Dec 6	vsYSU	L 55-78	+6.5	L −16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 11	vsGB	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	165.5	U 160
Dec 22	@GCU	L 78-91	+23.5	W +10.5	169.5	U 169
Dec 29	@CLE	L 86-99	+1.5	L −11.5	172.5	O 185

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+17.5

LIU

L 90-94

−8.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−11.5

EMU

W 90-83

+11.5

CHSO

L 91-103

−13.5

ALST

L 80-101

−23.5

L 85-98

−9.5

W 85-80

+1.5

DETM

L 78-92

−10.5

YSU

L 55-78

−16.5

L 75-85

−13.5

GCU

L 78-91

+10.5

CLE

L 86-99

−11.5

covered 4didn’t cover 9avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+47.5

LIU

L 90-94

−1.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−0.5

EMU

W 90-83

−13.5

CHSO

L 91-103

+5.5

ALST

L 80-101

−0.5

L 85-98

+7.5

W 85-80

−16.5

DETM

L 78-92

−10.5

YSU

L 55-78

−38.5

L 75-85

−5.5

GCU

L 78-91

−0.5

CLE

L 86-99

+12.5

over 4under 9avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Kentucky

12 games played

Straight up

7-5

58% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-4

67% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-558%

L L W W W W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-650%

L L W W W W W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-467%

O U O U O U O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 20	@CMU	W 90-66	+4.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsEKU	W 82-71	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 26	vsWOF	W 93-83	-3.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsBU	W 74-65	-7.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsCLE	W 95-80	-14.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 6	@PFW	L 77-79	+1.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 13	@BELL	W 80-76	-4.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 156
Dec 17	vsOAK	L 77-82	-3.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 21	vsCOFC	L 74-85	-5.5	L −16.5	153.5	O 159
Dec 29	@RMU	W 79-77	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

CMU

W 90-66

+28.5

EKU

W 82-71

+6.5

WOF

W 93-83

+6.5

W 74-65

+1.5

CLE

W 95-80

+0.5

PFW

L 77-79

−0.5

BELL

W 80-76

−0.5

OAK

L 77-82

−8.5

COFC

L 74-85

−16.5

RMU

W 79-77

+0.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

CMU

W 90-66

+9.5

EKU

W 82-71

−3.5

WOF

W 93-83

+26.5

W 74-65

−4.5

CLE

W 95-80

+16.5

PFW

L 77-79

+2.5

BELL

W 80-76

+9.5

OAK

L 77-82

−4.5

COFC

L 74-85

+5.5

RMU

W 79-77

+6.5

over 8under 4avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

IU Indianapolis Jaguars at Northern Kentucky Norse

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

IU Indy

N Kentucky

IU Indy

N Kentucky