Northern Kentucky Norse at Bellarmine Knights: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 13, 2:00 PM ETKnights Hall · at Bellarmine

#230NKUN Kentucky80▲ winner

Final

#295BELLBellarmine76final

Closing lineNKU -4.5✓ BELL covered by 0.5

Closing total146.5Over by 9.5

Season records: N Kentucky and Bellarmine
NKU	This season	BELL
5-3	Record	2-5
5-3	ATS	5-2
5-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NKU 79–75 BELL · ✓ NKU (62%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NKU	44	36	80
BELL	38	38	76

1st half: NKU 44, BELL 38 (NKU by 6). The model had NKU by 2.3 and a total of 72.2 (actual 82).

Team stats

NKU		BELL
32-63 51%	Field goals	27-54 50%
8-25 32%	3-pointers	9-23 39%
8-17 47%	Free throws	13-13 100%
32 12 off	Rebounds	32 7 off
17	Assists	19
14	Steals	4
2	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	18
16	Fouls	15
44	Points in paint	32
14	Fast-break points	9

Players

NKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
LJ Wells F	36	17	8	2	7-10	1-2
Dan Gherezgher G	35	17	3	3	7-15	2-8
Ethan Elliott G	29	3	3	3	1-5	0-2
Tae Dozier G	25	12	1	3	5-10	2-5
Kael Robinson F	23	15	2	2	6-9	3-4
Bench
Donovan Oday G	30	13	6	2	5-11	0-4
Donovan Rakotonanahary F	17	1	3	2	0-2	0-0
Ryan Tolliver F	4	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bryce Darbyshire G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: JJ Apathjang, Juanma Ruiz, Addison Archer, Shawn Nelson, Mitchel Minor

BELL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brian Waddell F	37	8	7	3	4-8	0-1
Kenyon Goodin G	35	15	5	3	5-11	3-7
Jack Karasinski F	33	21	8	1	7-13	1-5
Sam Donald F	27	9	4	4	3-7	3-5
Michael Wilson Jr. G	23	14	2	0	5-9	1-2
Bench
Donovan Hunter F	24	3	1	3	1-3	1-3
Darrius Bolden G	11	2	1	4	0-0	0-0
Myles Watkins G	7	4	0	1	2-3	0-0
Grant Whitaker G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ant McAfee, Jacob Wassler, Dominique Murphy, Tommy Clark, Grant Neal, Tyler Doyle, Luke Anderson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NKU -4.5	NKU -3.6	BELL +0.9	W BELL covered
Total	146.5	154.2	Over 7.7	W Over
Projected score	—	NKU 78.9 · BELL 75.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NKU -2.3	NKU -6.0
1H total	72.2	82
1H projected score	NKU 37.2 · BELL 34.9	NKU 44 · BELL 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NKU WWWWL	5-3	63%	1-3	4-0
BELL LWWWW	5-2	71%	1-1	4-2

Venue/role: NKU away, as favorite; BELL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NKU UOUOO	5-3	63%	5-3
BELL OOUUU	4-3	57%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NKUlast 8	5-3 63%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%
BELLlast 7	2-5 29%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NKU 1–0 BELLNKU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NKU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 30, 2024-25	BELL 70 @ NKU 86	NKU -10.5	NKU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Kentucky

8 games played

Straight up

5-3

63% wins

Against the spread

5-3

63% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-3

63% overs · avg +7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-363%

L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-363%

L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-363%

O U O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 20	@CMU	W 90-66	+4.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsEKU	W 82-71	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 26	vsWOF	W 93-83	-3.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsBU	W 74-65	-7.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsCLE	W 95-80	-14.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 6	@PFW	L 77-79	+1.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

CMU

W 90-66

+28.5

EKU

W 82-71

+6.5

WOF

W 93-83

+6.5

W 74-65

+1.5

CLE

W 95-80

+0.5

PFW

L 77-79

−0.5

covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

CMU

W 90-66

+9.5

EKU

W 82-71

−3.5

WOF

W 93-83

+26.5

W 74-65

−4.5

CLE

W 95-80

+16.5

PFW

L 77-79

+2.5

over 5under 3avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bellarmine

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-271%

L W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

O O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UGA	L 59-104	+23.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 8	@KSU	L 71-98	+28.5	W +1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 15	vsWOF	L 86-94	+3.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 180
Nov 19	@ND	L 79-86	+24.5	W +17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	@CIT	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsHCU	W 74-69	+2.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 6	@MUR	L 68-81	+16.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

−21.5

KSU

L 71-98

+1.5

WOF

L 86-94

−4.5

L 79-86

+17.5

CIT

W 70-58

+8.5

HCU

W 74-69

+7.5

MUR

L 68-81

+3.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

+12.5

KSU

L 71-98

+0.5

WOF

L 86-94

+23.5

L 79-86

+14.5

CIT

W 70-58

−28.5

HCU

W 74-69

−1.5

MUR

L 68-81

−8.5

over 4under 3avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northern Kentucky Norse at Bellarmine Knights

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Kentucky

Bellarmine

N Kentucky

Bellarmine