Cleveland State Vikings at Northern Kentucky Norse: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETTruist Arena · at N Kentucky · Conference game

Final

#230NKUN Kentucky95▲ winner

Closing lineNKU -14.5✓ NKU covered by 0.5

Closing total158.5Over by 16.5

Season records: Cleveland St and N Kentucky
CLE	This season	NKU
1-6	Record	4-2
4-3	ATS	4-2
5-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CLE 74–85 NKU · ✓ NKU (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CLE	33	47	80
NKU	47	48	95

1st half: CLE 33, NKU 47 (NKU by 14). The model had NKU by 6.1 and a total of 74.3 (actual 80).

Team stats

CLE		NKU
22-48 46%	Field goals	34-61 56%
14-25 56%	3-pointers	13-27 48%
22-28 79%	Free throws	14-15 93%
23 8 off	Rebounds	29 12 off
14	Assists	22
6	Steals	12
3	Blocks	7
20	Turnovers	14
17	Fouls	19
16	Points in paint	40
9	Fast-break points	17

Players

CLE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tre Beard G	35	20	4	5	7-14	6-8
Jaidon Lipscomb G	34	23	3	1	3-8	3-8
Preist Ryan F	32	8	5	3	3-9	0-0
David Giddens G	24	14	1	1	5-7	4-5
Holden Pierre-Louis F	20	9	5	1	3-3	0-0
Bench
Chevalier Emery G	23	3	1	1	0-2	0-1
Foster Wonders G	21	3	0	2	1-3	1-3
Kamari Jones G	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Kevo St. Hilaire F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ivan Spirov, Lucas Burton, Waqo Tessema, Josiah Harris, Manny Hill, Dayan Nessah

NKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
LJ Wells F	38	21	10	2	8-12	1-1
Tae Dozier G	32	17	4	4	7-12	1-3
Ethan Elliott G	30	7	3	5	2-6	1-4
Dan Gherezgher G	28	11	2	3	3-7	3-6
Kael Robinson F	20	17	2	4	6-7	3-4
Bench
Donovan Oday G	22	17	4	2	6-9	3-5
Shawn Nelson G	14	5	1	1	2-6	1-3
Donovan Rakotonanahary F	10	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Bryce Darbyshire G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Addison Archer F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: JJ Apathjang, Juanma Ruiz, Ryan Tolliver, Mitchel Minor

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NKU -14.5	NKU -10.4	CLE +4.1	L NKU covered
Total	158.5	158.8	Over 0.3	W Over
Projected score	—	CLE 74.2 · NKU 84.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NKU -6.1	NKU -14.0
1H total	74.3	80
1H projected score	CLE 34.1 · NKU 40.2	CLE 33 · NKU 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WWLLW	4-3	57%	2-2	4-2
NKU LWWWW	4-2	67%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; NKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOOUU	5-2	71%	1-6
NKU UOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 7	1-6 14%	4-3 57%	5-2 71%
NKUlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CLE 5–5 NKUSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2024-25	NKU 63 @ CLE 68	CLE -4.5	CLE W
Feb 5, 2024-25	CLE 75 @ NKU 85	NKU -1.5	NKU W
Jan 15, 2024-25	NKU 58 @ CLE 76	CLE -4.5	CLE W
Feb 22, 2023-24	CLE 73 @ NKU 75	NKU -2.5	CLE W
Jan 7, 2023-24	NKU 85 @ CLE 88	CLE -4.5	NKU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cleveland St

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LUC	L 88-91	+17.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 10	@NU	L 63-110	+23.5	L −23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsKENT	L 95-102	+11.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 197
Nov 16	vsRAD	W 87-82	+8.5	W +13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsVAL	L 75-90	-2.5	L −17.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 22	@KENT	L 71-91	+15.5	L −4.5	172.5	U 162
Nov 28	@MIZ	L 59-86	+31.5	W +4.5	170.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+14.5

L 63-110

−23.5

KENT

L 95-102

+4.5

RAD

W 87-82

+13.5

VAL

L 75-90

−17.5

KENT

L 71-91

−4.5

MIZ

L 59-86

+4.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+27.5

L 63-110

+21.5

KENT

L 95-102

+31.5

RAD

W 87-82

+6.5

VAL

L 75-90

+6.5

KENT

L 71-91

−10.5

MIZ

L 59-86

−25.5

over 5under 2avg +8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Kentucky

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 20	@CMU	W 90-66	+4.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsEKU	W 82-71	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 26	vsWOF	W 93-83	-3.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsBU	W 74-65	-7.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

CMU

W 90-66

+28.5

EKU

W 82-71

+6.5

WOF

W 93-83

+6.5

W 74-65

+1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

CMU

W 90-66

+9.5

EKU

W 82-71

−3.5

WOF

W 93-83

+26.5

W 74-65

−4.5

over 3under 3avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cleveland State Vikings at Northern Kentucky Norse

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Cleveland St

N Kentucky

Cleveland St

N Kentucky