Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Oakland Golden Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETOU Credit Union O'rena · at Oakland · Conference game

#249PFWPurdue FW92final

Final

#204OAKOakland101▲ winner

Closing lineOAK -4.5✓ OAK covered by 4.5

Closing total162.5Over by 30.5

Season records: Purdue FW and Oakland
PFW	This season	OAK
1-5	Record	2-5
2-4	ATS	4-3
4-2	O/U	6-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PFW 78–87 OAK · ✓ OAK (78%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PFW	38	54	92
OAK	47	54	101

1st half: PFW 38, OAK 47 (OAK by 9). The model had OAK by 5.3 and a total of 76.9 (actual 85).

Team stats

PFW		OAK
32-68 47%	Field goals	35-66 53%
15-37 41%	3-pointers	13-29 45%
13-20 65%	Free throws	18-24 75%
33 9 off	Rebounds	43 11 off
19	Assists	25
9	Steals	4
4	Blocks	6
8	Turnovers	11
21	Fouls	19
32	Points in paint	44
14	Fast-break points	35

Players

PFW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Corey Hadnot II G	38	33	6	2	12-19	4-9
DeAndre Craig Jr. G	33	22	4	5	6-15	5-8
Mikale Stevenson G	30	8	2	6	4-12	0-3
Maximus Nelson F	28	9	3	1	3-12	3-11
Darius Duffy F	28	7	4	1	2-2	0-0
Bench
Ebrahim Kaba G	14	6	2	2	2-3	2-3
EJ Mosley G	14	3	1	2	1-1	1-1
Deangelo Elisee F	11	4	3	0	2-2	0-0
Yuval Levin F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Mason Shrout G	1	0	0	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Chris Morgan, Ja'Corey Lipkins, Danny Kelly, Solomon Richard, Quentin Morgan

OAK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brody Robinson G	35	27	5	8	7-12	4-8
Michael Houge F	31	12	8	0	5-10	0-1
Tuburu Naivalurua F	28	12	5	1	5-10	1-3
Isaac Garrett F	27	15	5	4	5-8	1-1
Nassim Mashhour G	22	13	7	2	4-10	3-7
Bench
Khoi Thurmon G	17	2	1	5	1-2	0-1
Ziare Wells G	16	9	3	3	4-6	1-2
Brett White II G	12	9	3	2	3-6	3-6
Warren Marshall IV G	11	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Nate Deer F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Hamoudy Mashhour, Donny Yeager, William Kassi, MJ Yeager

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OAK -4.5	OAK -9.0	OAK +4.5	W OAK covered
Total	162.5	164.5	Over 2.0	W Over
Projected score	—	PFW 77.7 · OAK 86.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OAK -5.3	OAK -9.0
1H total	76.9	85
1H projected score	PFW 35.8 · OAK 41.1	PFW 38 · OAK 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PFW LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-4	1-3
OAK LWLWW	4-3	57%	—	1-1

Venue/role: PFW away, as underdog; OAK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PFW OUOUO	4-2	67%	1-5
OAK UOOOO	6-1	86%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PFWlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%
OAKlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	6-1 86%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

PFW 5–4 OAKPFW leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · PFW 4-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2024-25	OAK 66 @ PFW 80	PFW -3.5	PFW W
Jan 22, 2024-25	PFW 72 @ OAK 76	OAK -0.5	OAK W
Mar 7, 2023-24	PFW 65 @ OAK 75	OAK -4.5	OAK W
Feb 14, 2023-24	OAK 71 @ PFW 63	PFW -0.5	OAK W
Dec 2, 2023-24	PFW 98 @ OAK 77	OAK -5.5	PFW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Purdue FW

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GCU	L 71-90	+14.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 161
Nov 7	@OSU	L 68-94	+24.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 12	@WMU	L 71-83	-3.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 18	@UTAH	L 77-85	+13.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 21	@SLU	L 60-91	+19.5	L −11.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 25	vsCHST	W 90-77	-12.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

−4.5

OSU

L 68-94

−1.5

WMU

L 71-83

−15.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+5.5

SLU

L 60-91

−11.5

CHST

W 90-77

+0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

+5.5

OSU

L 68-94

+2.5

WMU

L 71-83

−7.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+0.5

SLU

L 60-91

−15.5

CHST

W 90-77

+17.5

over 4under 2avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oakland

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-1

86% overs · avg +13.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

L W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-186%

O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MICH	L 78-121	+24.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 199
Nov 7	@PUR	L 77-87	+31.5	W +21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 12	@HOU	L 45-78	+30.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 17	@UCF	L 83-87	+13.5	W +9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 21	@EMU	L 91-97	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 188
Nov 24	vsLAM	W 83-68	-3.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 25	@MONT	W 95-87	+4.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 182

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

−18.5

PUR

L 77-87

+21.5

HOU

L 45-78

−2.5

UCF

L 83-87

+9.5

EMU

L 91-97

−7.5

LAM

W 83-68

+11.5

MONT

W 95-87

+12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

+42.5

PUR

L 77-87

+5.5

HOU

L 45-78

−15.5

UCF

L 83-87

+6.5

EMU

L 91-97

+34.5

LAM

W 83-68

+2.5

MONT

W 95-87

+19.5

over 6under 1avg +13.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Purdue FW @ Oakland

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Purdue FW

Oakland

Purdue FW

Oakland