Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Saint Louis Billikens: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 8:00 PM ETChaifetz Arena · at Saint Louis

#249PFWPurdue FW60final

Final

#69SLUSaint Louis91▲ winner

Closing lineSLU -19.5✓ SLU covered by 11.5

Closing total166.5Under by 15.5

Season records: Purdue FW and Saint Louis
PFW	This season	SLU
0-4	Record	4-0
1-3	ATS	3-1
3-1	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PFW 74–90 SLU · ✓ SLU (92%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PFW	29	31	60
SLU	44	47	91

1st half: PFW 29, SLU 44 (SLU by 15). The model had SLU by 9.5 and a total of 76.6 (actual 73).

Team stats

PFW		SLU
21-61 34%	Field goals	31-61 51%
7-34 21%	3-pointers	13-31 42%
11-14 79%	Free throws	16-17 94%
24 8 off	Rebounds	50 15 off
12	Assists	19
11	Steals	6
2	Blocks	1
11	Turnovers	16
16	Fouls	11
22	Points in paint	34
13	Fast-break points	9

Players

PFW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
DeAndre Craig Jr. G	29	13	4	3	5-12	1-7
Mikale Stevenson G	28	15	5	1	4-11	1-4
Maximus Nelson F	28	6	1	1	2-5	2-5
Corey Hadnot II G	23	3	2	4	1-8	0-4
Darius Duffy F	21	6	5	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Ebrahim Kaba G	19	5	2	1	2-7	1-5
Chris Morgan G	16	5	1	1	2-6	1-4
Yuval Levin F	13	7	3	0	2-6	1-3
EJ Mosley G	11	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Deangelo Elisee F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Mason Shrout G	6	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ja'Corey Lipkins, Danny Kelly, Solomon Richard, Quentin Morgan

SLU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trey Green G	23	14	0	2	5-9	4-8
Amari McCottry G	22	5	10	4	2-7	0-1
Quentin Jones G	22	6	4	2	2-6	0-2
Dion Brown G	21	21	4	1	8-9	1-1
Robbie Avila C	21	12	3	5	4-6	4-5
Bench
Ishan Sharma F	20	5	5	0	2-4	1-3
Kellen Thames G	19	6	8	2	2-3	0-0
Paul Otieno F	17	9	3	1	1-2	1-1
Brady Dunlap F	14	5	3	0	2-5	1-4
Jax Kerr F	11	5	5	1	2-6	0-3
Cam Hutson G	8	0	1	1	0-3	0-2
Isaac Holmes G	1	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Jaden Schertz G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kalu Anya, Luke Laczkowski, Badara Diakite, Dylan Warlick

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SLU -19.5	SLU -16.0	PFW +3.5	L SLU covered
Total	166.5	163.6	Under 2.9	W Under
Projected score	—	PFW 73.8 · SLU 89.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SLU -9.5	SLU -15.0
1H total	76.6	73
1H projected score	PFW 33.6 · SLU 43.1	PFW 29 · SLU 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PFW LLLW	1-3	25%	1-3	1-2
SLU WLWW	3-1	75%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: PFW away, as underdog; SLU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PFW OOUO	3-1	75%	0-4
SLU OOOU	3-1	75%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PFWlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%
SLUlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Purdue FW

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GCU	L 71-90	+14.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 161
Nov 7	@OSU	L 68-94	+24.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 12	@WMU	L 71-83	-3.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 18	@UTAH	L 77-85	+13.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

−4.5

OSU

L 68-94

−1.5

WMU

L 71-83

−15.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

+5.5

OSU

L 68-94

+2.5

WMU

L 71-83

−7.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+0.5

over 3under 1avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Louis

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSEMO	W 92-67	-19.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 6	vsCHST	W 108-86	-30.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 10	vsLIN	W 109-66	-24.5	W +18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 15	vsGCU	W 78-64	-8.5	W +5.5	167.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SEMO

W 92-67

+5.5

CHST

W 108-86

−8.5

LIN

W 109-66

+18.5

GCU

W 78-64

+5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SEMO

W 92-67

+5.5

CHST

W 108-86

+38.5

LIN

W 109-66

+9.5

GCU

W 78-64

−25.5

over 3under 1avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Saint Louis Billikens

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Purdue FW

Saint Louis

Purdue FW

Saint Louis