Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Utah Utes: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 9:00 PM ETJon M. Huntsman Center · at Utah

#249PFWPurdue FW77final

Final

#73UTAHUtah85▲ winner

Closing lineUTAH -13.5✓ PFW covered by 5.5

Closing total161.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Purdue FW and Utah
PFW	This season	UTAH
0-3	Record	4-0
0-3	ATS	0-4
2-1	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PFW 74–89 UTAH · ✓ UTAH (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PFW	32	45	77
UTAH	42	43	85

1st half: PFW 32, UTAH 42 (UTAH by 10). The model had UTAH by 8.4 and a total of 76.3 (actual 74).

Team stats

PFW		UTAH
31-65 48%	Field goals	29-56 52%
9-27 33%	3-pointers	12-29 41%
6-8 75%	Free throws	15-19 79%
31 12 off	Rebounds	33 10 off
13	Assists	17
8	Steals	8
4	Blocks	5
10	Turnovers	11
15	Fouls	12
42	Points in paint	34
14	Fast-break points	17

Players

PFW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Corey Hadnot II G	31	20	1	1	8-16	2-5
DeAndre Craig Jr. G	28	15	4	7	5-11	2-5
Mikale Stevenson G	25	15	5	3	7-12	1-3
Darius Duffy F	23	7	6	0	3-3	0-0
Maximus Nelson F	20	6	1	0	2-7	2-7
Bench
Ebrahim Kaba G	21	5	6	0	2-7	1-4
Chris Morgan G	18	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Deangelo Elisee F	14	6	1	0	3-4	0-0
EJ Mosley G	13	0	2	2	0-4	0-2
Yuval Levin F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Mason Shrout G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Danny Kelly, Solomon Richard, Quentin Morgan, Ja'Corey Lipkins

UTAH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Terrence Brown G	31	27	2	2	7-14	5-8
Keanu Dawes F	29	10	10	3	4-6	0-2
Seydou Traore G	28	17	2	2	5-9	4-8
Don McHenry G	27	18	3	6	7-10	2-4
Josh Hayes F	11	4	0	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
James Okonkwo F	24	2	10	1	1-2	0-0
Obomate Abbey G	20	0	3	2	0-3	0-1
Jacob Patrick G	15	3	0	0	1-5	1-4
Kendyl Sanders F	15	4	2	1	2-5	0-2

Did not play: Jahki Howard, Alvin Jackson III, Ibrahima Traore, Jerry Huang, Elijah Moore, Babacar Faye

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UTAH -13.5	UTAH -14.3	UTAH +0.8	L PFW covered
Total	161.5	162.8	Over 1.3	W Over
Projected score	—	PFW 74.3 · UTAH 88.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTAH -8.4	UTAH -10.0
1H total	76.3	74
1H projected score	PFW 33.9 · UTAH 42.4	PFW 32 · UTAH 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PFW LLL	0-3	0%	0-3	0-2
UTAH LLLL	0-4	0%	0-4	0-4

Venue/role: PFW away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PFW OOU	2-1	67%	0-3
UTAH OOOO	4-0	100%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PFWlast 3	0-3 0%	0-3 0%	2-1 67%
UTAHlast 4	4-0 100%	0-4 0%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Purdue FW

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GCU	L 71-90	+14.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 161
Nov 7	@OSU	L 68-94	+24.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 12	@WMU	L 71-83	-3.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

−4.5

OSU

L 68-94

−1.5

WMU

L 71-83

−15.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

+5.5

OSU

L 68-94

+2.5

WMU

L 71-83

−7.5

over 2under 1avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Utah

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +12.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSJSU	W 84-75	-11.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	vsWEB	W 92-89	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 10	vsHC	W 87-69	-21.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsSHSU	W 85-79	-12.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

−2.5

WEB

W 92-89

−12.5

W 87-69

−3.5

SHSU

W 85-79

−6.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

+12.5

WEB

W 92-89

+32.5

W 87-69

+0.5

SHSU

W 85-79

+4.5

over 4under 0avg +12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Utah Utes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Purdue FW

Utah

Purdue FW

Utah