Monmouth Hawks at Syracuse Orange: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 9:00 PM ETJMA Wireless Dome · at Syracuse

#155MONMMonmouth73final

Final

#63SYRSyracuse78▲ winner

Closing lineSYR -21.5✓ MONM covered by 16.5

Closing total145.5Over by 5.5

Season records: Monmouth and Syracuse
MONM	This season	SYR
0-2	Record	3-0
1-1	ATS	3-0
0-2	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MONM 62–82 SYR · ✓ SYR (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MONM	33	40	73
SYR	36	42	78

1st half: MONM 33, SYR 36 (SYR by 3). The model had SYR by 11.7 and a total of 67.4 (actual 69).

Team stats

MONM		SYR
22-57 39%	Field goals	26-52 50%
9-24 38%	3-pointers	7-17 41%
20-25 80%	Free throws	19-33 58%
35 10 off	Rebounds	36 9 off
12	Assists	17
8	Steals	4
5	Blocks	8
12	Turnovers	12
27	Fouls	20
22	Points in paint	38
9	Fast-break points	14

Players

MONM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jack Collins G	38	11	6	5	4-8	3-5
Cornelius Robinson III F	36	6	8	1	2-5	1-2
Justin Ray G	34	25	0	3	6-11	4-7
Stefanos Spartalis F	24	18	5	1	6-14	0-1
Jason Rivera-Torres G	22	7	8	2	2-12	0-5
Bench
Andrew Ball F	15	6	2	0	2-3	1-2
Dok Muordar C	12	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jinup Dobuol G	7	0	2	0	0-4	0-2
Anthony Martinez G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
O'Marion Harvey F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Zubayr Griffin G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jack Leahy, Lucas Orchard, Kavion McClain, Quinn Peters, Corey Miller

SYR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nate Kingz G	34	15	4	2	6-12	3-7
Naithan George G	33	12	6	9	4-7	2-3
Donnie Freeman F	32	18	7	3	3-10	0-2
William Kyle III F	30	7	7	1	3-3	0-0
J.J. Starling G	26	11	1	1	4-6	1-1
Bench
Kiyan Anthony G	21	7	3	0	2-9	1-4
Sadiq White Jr. F	11	8	2	0	4-5	0-0
Akir Souare F	7	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Bryce Zephir G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Luke Fennell, Tiefing Diawara, Aaron Womack III, Noah Lobdell, Tyler Betsey

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SYR -21.5	SYR -19.6	MONM +1.9	W MONM covered
Total	145.5	143.9	Under 1.6	L Over
Projected score	—	MONM 62.2 · SYR 81.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SYR -11.7	SYR -3.0
1H total	67.4	69
1H projected score	MONM 27.9 · SYR 39.5	MONM 33 · SYR 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MONM LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1
SYR WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: MONM away, as underdog; SYR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MONM UU	0-2	0%	0-2
SYR UUU	0-3	0%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MONMlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
SYRlast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MONM 0–1 SYRSYR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MONM 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 12, 2022-23	MONM 71 @ SYR 86	SYR -23.5	MONM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Monmouth

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@LAS	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 13	@HALL	L 58-70	+15.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−8.5

HALL

L 58-70

+3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−10.5

HALL

L 58-70

−7.5

over 0under 2avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Syracuse

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +16.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −22.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBING	W 85-47	-21.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsDSU	W 83-43	-26.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 15	vsDREX	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BING

W 85-47

+16.5

DSU

W 83-43

+13.5

DREX

W 80-50

+18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +16.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BING

W 85-47

−21.5

DSU

W 83-43

−31.5

DREX

W 80-50

−13.5

over 0under 3avg −22.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Monmouth @ Syracuse

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Monmouth

Syracuse

Monmouth

Syracuse