Rider Broncs at Texas Longhorns: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 9:00 PM ETMoody Center · at Texas

#347RIDRider65final

Final

#11TEXTexas99▲ winner

Closing lineTEX -30.5✓ TEX covered by 3.5

Closing total143.5Over by 20.5

Season records: Rider and Texas
RID	This season	TEX
0-2	Record	3-1
0-2	ATS	2-2
0-2	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: RID 59–87 TEX · ✓ TEX (99%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
RID	28	37	65
TEX	44	55	99

1st half: RID 28, TEX 44 (TEX by 16). The model had TEX by 16.8 and a total of 68.0 (actual 72).

Team stats

RID		TEX
21-62 34%	Field goals	33-60 55%
7-20 35%	3-pointers	11-30 37%
16-18 89%	Free throws	22-34 65%
37 9 off	Rebounds	39 6 off
7	Assists	19
2	Steals	10
3	Blocks	1
12	Turnovers	6
23	Fouls	19
8	Points in paint	42
4	Fast-break points	34

Players

RID	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Flash Burton G	29	16	3	2	6-13	2-4
Caleb Smith G	29	8	6	0	1-6	0-2
Zion Cruz G	29	8	2	1	3-14	1-3
Cole McCabe F	19	6	5	0	2-3	2-3
Mohamad Diallo F	13	4	3	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Shemani Fuller F	15	2	7	0	1-3	0-0
Antwan Wilson G	15	2	1	0	0-4	0-3
Jamir McNeil G	13	0	1	3	0-1	0-0
Davis Bynum F	12	5	2	0	2-4	1-1
Daniel Helterhoff F	11	5	0	1	2-4	0-1
Devean Williams G	8	3	3	0	1-2	1-2
AB Coulibaly G	5	6	3	0	1-3	0-1
Maurizio D'Alessandro G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Xaviel Rodriguez, Kristupas Kepežinskas

TEX	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dailyn Swain G	26	26	5	3	9-11	0-2
Jordan Pope G	25	6	5	3	2-8	2-7
Camden Heide F	25	20	5	0	7-11	6-9
Tramon Mark G	24	3	4	5	1-6	0-4
Matas Vokietaitis C	21	20	3	0	6-8	0-0
Bench
Chendall Weaver G	22	2	4	2	1-1	0-0
Lassina Traore F	22	7	5	0	2-3	0-0
Simeon Wilcher G	22	12	2	5	4-7	2-4
Declan Duru Jr. F	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Anthon McDermott G	3	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Brandon Taylor G	2	3	1	0	1-3	1-2
Cole Bott F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Lewis Obiorah, Nic Codie, John Clark

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TEX -30.5	TEX -28.0	RID +2.5	L TEX covered
Total	143.5	145.2	Over 1.7	W Over
Projected score	—	RID 58.6 · TEX 86.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TEX -16.8	TEX -16.0
1H total	68.0	72
1H projected score	RID 25.6 · TEX 42.4	RID 28 · TEX 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RID LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2
TEX LWWL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: RID away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
RID UU	0-2	0%	0-2
TEX UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RIDlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%
TEXlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rider

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UVA	L 53-87	+26.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 5	@RUTG	L 53-81	+18.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−7.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−9.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−8.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−5.5

over 0under 2avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsDUKE	L 60-75	+10.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsLAF	W 97-60	-25.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 12	vsFDU	W 93-58	-31.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsKC	W 71-55	-31.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 126

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−4.5

LAF

W 97-60

+11.5

FDU

W 93-58

+3.5

W 71-55

−15.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−18.5

LAF

W 97-60

+3.5

FDU

W 93-58

−7.5

W 71-55

−33.5

over 1under 3avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rider @ Texas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Rider

Texas

Rider

Texas