Northern Illinois Huskies at Loyola Chicago Ramblers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 8:00 PM ETGentile Arena · at Loyola Chicago

#334NIUN Illinois76▲ winner

Final

Closing lineLUC -13.5✓ NIU covered by 30.5

Closing total148.5Under by 13.5

Season records: N Illinois and Loyola Chicago
NIU	This season	LUC
1-3	Record	1-4
3-1	ATS	0-5
2-2	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NIU 70–83 LUC · ✗ LUC (86%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NIU	42	34	76
LUC	37	22	59

1st half: NIU 42, LUC 37 (NIU by 5). The model had LUC by 7.3 and a total of 71.7 (actual 79).

Team stats

NIU		LUC
27-64 42%	Field goals	23-52 44%
14-34 41%	3-pointers	9-25 36%
8-10 80%	Free throws	4-7 57%
39 17 off	Rebounds	27 7 off
17	Assists	16
11	Steals	2
1	Blocks	6
10	Turnovers	13
13	Fouls	9
24	Points in paint	28
7	Fast-break points	7

Players

NIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Ducommun G	36	24	2	6	9-14	6-11
Makhai Valentine G	32	17	9	1	5-11	3-9
Gustav Winther F	31	5	4	3	2-5	1-1
Daemar Kelly G	24	2	0	1	1-7	0-3
Hassan Washington F	20	7	1	0	3-5	1-2
Bench
Taj Walters G	22	9	10	0	2-8	1-4
Gianni Cobb G	19	2	3	5	1-6	0-0
Jao Ituka G	15	10	5	1	4-8	2-4
Jaylen Wharton F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Lataevyon Taylor, JJ Taylor, Isaiah Washington, Carlos Coronado, Ladji Kante, Isaiah Stewart, Max Laskey

LUC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justin Moore G	32	8	2	5	3-7	2-4
Chuck Love III G	30	5	2	2	2-6	1-5
Miles Rubin C	29	16	7	4	7-11	0-0
Deywilk Tavarez G	29	15	3	1	5-10	3-7
Kymany Houinsou G	21	0	3	2	0-2	0-0
Bench
Kayde Dotson G	17	7	4	0	3-6	1-4
Joshua Ola-Joseph F	13	3	1	0	1-3	1-2
Daniil Glazkov G	10	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Alexander Richardson C	9	0	2	1	0-3	0-1
Nic Anderson G	4	5	0	1	2-3	1-1
Dominick Harris G	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Brayden Young F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Caleb Reese G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Sam Yurasek, Xavier Amos, Zachary Royster

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LUC -13.5	LUC -12.4	NIU +1.1	W NIU covered
Total	148.5	153.0	Over 4.5	L Under
Projected score	—	NIU 70.3 · LUC 82.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LUC -7.3	NIU -5.0
1H total	71.7	79
1H projected score	NIU 32.2 · LUC 39.5	NIU 42 · LUC 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WWLW	3-1	75%	2-1	2-1
LUC LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; LUC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3
LUC OUUOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIUlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
LUClast 5	1-4 20%	0-5 0%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Illinois

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

over 2under 2avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Loyola Chicago

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −14.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCLE	W 91-88	-17.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 6	vsMERC	L 65-73	-21.5	L −29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsUNT	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 13	@WICH	L 74-95	+5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsCSU	L 67-80	+3.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

−14.5

MERC

L 65-73

−29.5

UNT

L 62-64

−3.5

WICH

L 74-95

−15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−9.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

+27.5

MERC

L 65-73

−6.5

UNT

L 62-64

−12.5

WICH

L 74-95

+15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−4.5

over 2under 3avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Illinois @ Loyola Chicago

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Illinois

Loyola Chicago

N Illinois

Loyola Chicago