UC Riverside Highlanders at San Diego Toreros: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 9:00 PM ETJenny Craig Pavilion · at San Diego

#281UCRUC Riverside85▲ winner

Final

#146USDSan Diego71final

Closing lineUSD -7.5✓ UCR covered by 21.5

Closing total152.5Over by 3.5

Season records: UC Riverside and San Diego
UCR	This season	USD
1-3	Record	2-1
2-2	ATS	2-1
2-2	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UCR 73–79 USD · ✗ USD (70%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UCR	39	46	85
USD	29	42	71

1st half: UCR 39, USD 29 (UCR by 10). The model had USD by 3.5 and a total of 70.8 (actual 68).

Team stats

UCR		USD
30-55 55%	Field goals	25-61 41%
8-17 47%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
17-25 68%	Free throws	14-19 74%
33 10 off	Rebounds	32 13 off
14	Assists	13
7	Steals	5
5	Blocks	7
11	Turnovers	11
17	Fouls	19
38	Points in paint	34
13	Fast-break points	15

Players

UCR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
De'Undrae Perteete Jr. G	37	10	6	3	4-4	2-2
Andrew Henderson G	31	14	4	2	4-11	3-6
Osiris Grady F	30	11	6	3	5-9	0-2
Marqui Worthy Jr. G	28	12	5	3	3-5	0-0
BJ Kolly F	24	19	5	2	9-14	0-0
Bench
Jailen Daniel-Dalton F	20	11	3	1	3-6	1-3
Dylan Godfrey F	17	8	1	0	2-3	2-2
Ben Waller G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Tyler Jones G	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Denzel Hines F	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Daniel Tobiloba C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Parker Strauss, Gavin Haase, Amaury McKinney, EJ Spillman

USD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Toneari Lane G	34	12	2	2	4-10	2-7
Vuk Boskovic F	30	14	3	5	4-6	0-1
Ty-Laur Johnson G	26	8	2	2	3-10	1-4
D'Arrae Goodwin F	18	2	5	0	1-5	0-3
Piotr Winkowski C	5	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Tim Moore Jr. F	21	3	4	1	1-2	0-0
Adrian McIntyre G	21	15	5	1	6-10	2-5
Juanse Gorosito G	21	8	0	1	2-10	1-3
Assane Diop F	17	7	7	1	3-6	1-2
Emmanuel Callas G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Dominique Ford G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Caleb Versher G	1	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Josh Hecht, Brandon Benjamin, Boden Grant, Alejandro Aviles, Kjay Bradley, Neel Beniwal, Nick Del Bosque, Gavin Ripp

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USD -7.5	USD -6.2	UCR +1.3	W UCR covered
Total	152.5	151.1	Under 1.4	L Over
Projected score	—	UCR 72.5 · USD 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USD -3.5	UCR -10.0
1H total	70.8	68
1H projected score	UCR 33.6 · USD 37.2	UCR 39 · USD 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCR WWLL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1
USD LWW	2-1	67%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: UCR away, as underdog; USD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCR UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
USD UUU	0-3	0%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCRlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
USDlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UCR 0–2 USDUSD leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · USD has won the last 2 meetings · UCR 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2022-23	USD 92 @ UCR 84	UCR -6.5	USD W
Nov 17, 2021-22	UCR 62 @ USD 74	USD -3	USD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC Riverside

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UND	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 11	@UNM	L 68-82	+19.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	vsUND	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 18	@CBU	L 57-80	+12.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 74-70

+5.5

UNM

L 68-82

+5.5

UND

L 74-76

−5.5

CBU

L 57-80

−10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 74-70

−2.5

UNM

L 68-82

+8.5

UND

L 74-76

+1.5

CBU

L 57-80

−5.5

over 2under 2avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Diego

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

L W W

2 straight wins2 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsIDST	L 68-71	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsIDHO	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 18	vsGRAM	W 78-68	-6.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IDST

L 68-71

−7.5

IDHO

W 78-74

+5.5

GRAM

W 78-68

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IDST

L 68-71

−13.5

IDHO

W 78-74

−3.5

GRAM

W 78-68

−3.5

over 0under 3avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC Riverside @ San Diego

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UC Riverside

San Diego

UC Riverside

San Diego