Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Pepperdine Waves: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 9:00 PM ETFirestone Fieldhouse · at Pepperdine

#193SFASF Austin63▲ winner

Final

#172PEPPPepperdine60final

Closing lineSFA -1.5✓ SFA covered by 1.5

Closing total148.5Under by 25.5

Season records: SF Austin and Pepperdine
SFA	This season	PEPP
3-1	Record	1-2
3-1	ATS	2-1
2-2	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SFA 76–77 PEPP · ✗ PEPP (52%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SFA	24	39	63
PEPP	32	28	60

1st half: SFA 24, PEPP 32 (PEPP by 8). The model had PEPP by 0.1 and a total of 71.4 (actual 56).

Team stats

SFA		PEPP
26-68 38%	Field goals	20-50 40%
10-36 28%	3-pointers	7-18 39%
1-1 100%	Free throws	13-14 93%
32 10 off	Rebounds	28 6 off
17	Assists	7
9	Steals	4
3	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	15
16	Fouls	9
28	Points in paint	18
10	Fast-break points	8

Players

SFA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Keon Thompson G	34	10	8	5	5-12	0-5
Jerald Colonel F	31	4	7	3	2-4	0-0
Chrishawn Christmas G	29	6	5	4	3-6	0-1
Lateef Patrick Jr. G	27	11	3	4	4-13	2-8
Kam Burton G	14	6	5	0	2-7	2-7
Bench
Narit Chotikavanic G	32	22	2	0	8-17	6-12
Ahamed Mohammed G	16	2	1	1	1-4	0-2
Gediminas Alisas F	9	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Marcus Scurry G	4	0	1	0	0-4	0-1
Christian Green G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tichyque Musaka F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bryceson Melvin, Harris Dar, Yohan Gutierrez, Eltramon Smith

PEPP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aaron Clark G	39	30	3	1	9-12	5-6
Danilo Dozic C	38	11	4	2	3-9	1-4
Styles Phipps G	38	9	6	3	4-13	1-3
Javon Cooley G	37	6	8	1	2-6	0-1
Yonatan Levy F	9	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Bench
Pavle Stosic F	23	2	4	0	1-5	0-2
Luka Vudragovic G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Stefan Cicic C	5	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
David Mager G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Nikola Radovanovic F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Pasha Shemirani, Yassine Gharram, Vladimir Sudar, Ty Virgil, Anto Balian, Preston Phillips

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SFA -1.5	PEPP -0.5	PEPP +2.0	L SFA covered
Total	148.5	152.5	Over 4.0	L Under
Projected score	—	SFA 76 · PEPP 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PEPP -0.1	PEPP -8.0
1H total	71.4	56
1H projected score	SFA 35.7 · PEPP 35.8	SFA 24 · PEPP 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SFA WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	1-1
PEPP WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: SFA away, as favorite; PEPP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SFA UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1
PEPP UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFAlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
PEPPlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SF Austin

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +10 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsARST	W 90-65	+1.5	W +26.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 11	@RICE	W 81-69	+2.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsACU	W 76-66	-6.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 18	@FRES	L 78-80	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

W 90-65

+26.5

RICE

W 81-69

+14.5

ACU

W 76-66

+3.5

FRES

L 78-80

−4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +10 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

W 90-65

−0.5

RICE

W 81-69

+0.5

ACU

W 76-66

−0.5

FRES

L 78-80

+11.5

over 2under 2avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pepperdine

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	vsNOLA	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+11.5

over 2under 1avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Pepperdine Waves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SF Austin

Pepperdine

SF Austin

Pepperdine