Chicago State Cougars at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:00 PM ETMemorial Coliseum (IN) · at Purdue FW

#362CHSTChicago St77final

Final

#249PFWPurdue FW90▲ winner

Closing linePFW -12.5✓ PFW covered by 0.5

Closing total149.5Over by 17.5

Season records: Chicago St and Purdue FW
CHST	This season	PFW
0-6	Record	0-5
3-3	ATS	1-4
4-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CHST 71–82 PFW · ✓ PFW (85%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CHST	35	42	77
PFW	37	53	90

1st half: CHST 35, PFW 37 (PFW by 2). The model had PFW by 7.0 and a total of 71.6 (actual 72).

Team stats

CHST		PFW
28-58 48%	Field goals	32-53 60%
8-21 38%	3-pointers	13-25 52%
13-16 81%	Free throws	13-16 81%
31 15 off	Rebounds	22 7 off
9	Assists	18
9	Steals	11
1	Blocks	5
17	Turnovers	15
16	Fouls	13
30	Points in paint	36
10	Fast-break points	18

Players

CHST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
CJ Ray F	36	9	3	0	3-10	1-3
Marcus Tankersley G	33	18	2	2	8-16	1-1
Braelon Bush G	24	8	1	2	2-7	0-4
Dailliss Cox F	18	6	4	0	3-4	0-0
Corey Sands G	14	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
Doyel Cockrill III G	23	17	2	2	5-10	5-10
Daniel Zatsepin F	19	6	3	0	3-3	0-0
Lionel Larvadain G	14	6	2	1	2-3	1-1
Malek Robinson G	14	7	3	1	2-4	0-1
Joseph Owens F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Chauncey Gibson, DaJuan Bates, Dakari Thomas, CJ Delancy, Greg Spate, Deshawn Jean-Charles, Stephen Byard

PFW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Corey Hadnot II G	34	28	4	4	11-12	3-4
Mikale Stevenson G	33	29	2	3	11-17	5-8
DeAndre Craig Jr. G	30	7	0	3	2-8	1-5
Darius Duffy F	26	7	5	3	3-5	0-0
Maximus Nelson F	24	6	4	2	2-4	2-4
Bench
Chris Morgan G	16	1	1	2	0-0	0-0
Deangelo Elisee F	12	2	4	0	1-3	0-0
Yuval Levin F	10	5	1	1	1-1	1-1
EJ Mosley G	8	2	0	0	0-1	0-1
Ebrahim Kaba G	7	3	0	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Quentin Morgan, Solomon Richard, Danny Kelly, Ja'Corey Lipkins, Mason Shrout

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PFW -12.5	PFW -11.9	CHST +0.6	L PFW covered
Total	149.5	152.9	Over 3.4	W Over
Projected score	—	CHST 70.5 · PFW 82.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PFW -7.0	PFW -2.0
1H total	71.6	72
1H projected score	CHST 32.3 · PFW 39.3	CHST 35 · PFW 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHST WLWWL	3-3	50%	2-3	3-3
PFW LLLWL	1-4	20%	—	0-1

Venue/role: CHST away, as underdog; PFW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHST OOUUO	4-2	67%	0-6
PFW OOUOU	3-2	60%	0-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHSTlast 6	0-6 0%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%
PFWlast 5	0-5 0%	1-4 20%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Chicago St

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DEP	L 62-92	+24.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 6	@SLU	L 86-108	+30.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 11	@BTLR	L 66-98	+26.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	vsUIC	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MINN	L 54-66	+27.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 20	@IOWA	L 54-93	+31.5	L −7.5	142.5	O 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

−5.5

SLU

L 86-108

+8.5

BTLR

L 66-98

−5.5

UIC

L 63-67

+5.5

MINN

L 54-66

+15.5

IOWA

L 54-93

−7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

+10.5

SLU

L 86-108

+38.5

BTLR

L 66-98

+5.5

UIC

L 63-67

−26.5

MINN

L 54-66

−24.5

IOWA

L 54-93

+4.5

over 4under 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Purdue FW

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GCU	L 71-90	+14.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 161
Nov 7	@OSU	L 68-94	+24.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 12	@WMU	L 71-83	-3.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 18	@UTAH	L 77-85	+13.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 21	@SLU	L 60-91	+19.5	L −11.5	166.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

−4.5

OSU

L 68-94

−1.5

WMU

L 71-83

−15.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+5.5

SLU

L 60-91

−11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

+5.5

OSU

L 68-94

+2.5

WMU

L 71-83

−7.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+0.5

SLU

L 60-91

−15.5

over 3under 2avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Chicago State Cougars at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Chicago St

Purdue FW

Chicago St

Purdue FW