UIC Flames at Chicago State Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 2:00 PM ETJones Convocation Center · at Chicago St

#110UICUIC67▲ winner

Final

#362CHSTChicago St63final

Closing lineUIC -9.5✓ CHST covered by 5.5

Closing total156.5Under by 26.5

Season records: UIC and Chicago St
UIC	This season	CHST
1-1	Record	0-3
2-0	ATS	1-2
2-0	O/U	3-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UIC 84–73 CHST · ✓ UIC (83%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UIC	29	38	67
CHST	29	34	63

1st half: UIC 29, CHST 29 (tied). The model had UIC by 6.8 and a total of 73.8 (actual 58).

Team stats

UIC		CHST
22-50 44%	Field goals	23-56 41%
2-18 11%	3-pointers	5-20 25%
21-28 75%	Free throws	12-16 75%
36 13 off	Rebounds	29 12 off
13	Assists	14
4	Steals	7
1	Blocks	1
14	Turnovers	11
11	Fouls	26
40	Points in paint	32
11	Fast-break points	10

Players

UIC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Andy Johnson G	30	16	5	2	5-12	2-4
Rashund Washington Jr. G	28	10	7	0	4-9	0-5
Mekhi Lowery G	27	8	6	2	3-5	0-0
Ahmad Henderson II G	26	10	2	4	1-6	0-4
Ante Beljan F	18	2	1	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Sam Silverstein G	25	3	4	3	1-3	0-2
Jayce Nathaniel F	21	8	4	1	4-4	0-0
Abdul Momoh F	16	6	0	1	2-3	0-0
Josiah Hammons G	9	4	0	0	1-4	0-3

Did not play: Nano Barrantes, Tai Walters-Whitaker, AJ Morgan, Chris Walker, Elijah Crawford, Carlos Harris III

CHST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Marcus Tankersley G	32	13	5	2	5-11	0-1
Stephen Byard F	27	11	6	2	3-11	0-1
Braelon Bush G	25	15	0	3	6-13	2-7
Dailliss Cox F	21	4	4	0	2-4	0-0
Deshawn Jean-Charles G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
CJ Ray F	24	10	4	1	3-6	1-4
Doyel Cockrill III G	20	8	3	3	3-5	2-3
Chauncey Gibson G	14	0	3	1	0-5	0-4
Malek Robinson G	13	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Daniel Zatsepin F	8	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Dakari Thomas G	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Lionel Larvadain G	6	0	0	2	0-0	0-0

Did not play: CJ Delancy, DaJuan Bates, Corey Sands, Joseph Owens, Greg Spate

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UIC -9.5	UIC -10.9	UIC +1.4	L CHST covered
Total	156.5	157.6	Over 1.1	L Under
Projected score	—	UIC 84.3 · CHST 73.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UIC -6.8	PK
1H total	73.8	58
1H projected score	UIC 40.3 · CHST 33.5	UIC 29 · CHST 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UIC WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
CHST LWL	1-2	33%	—	1-2

Venue/role: UIC away, as favorite; CHST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UIC OO	2-0	100%	1-1
CHST OOO	3-0	100%	0-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UIClast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	2-0 100%
CHSTlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UIC

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +11 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDETM	W 91-71	-9.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 162
Nov 7	@ORST	L 73-76	+6.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DETM

W 91-71

+10.5

ORST

L 73-76

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DETM

W 91-71

+19.5

ORST

L 73-76

+2.5

over 2under 0avg +11 ptslonger = bigger margin

Chicago St

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +18.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DEP	L 62-92	+24.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 6	@SLU	L 86-108	+30.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 11	@BTLR	L 66-98	+26.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

−5.5

SLU

L 86-108

+8.5

BTLR

L 66-98

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

+10.5

SLU

L 86-108

+38.5

BTLR

L 66-98

+5.5

over 3under 0avg +18.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UIC Flames at Chicago State Cougars

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UIC

Chicago St

UIC

Chicago St