Boston University Terriers at Northern Kentucky Norse: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ETTruist Arena · at N Kentucky

#261BUBoston U65final

Final

#230NKUN Kentucky74▲ winner

Closing lineNKU -7.5✓ NKU covered by 1.5

Closing total143.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Boston U and N Kentucky
BU	This season	NKU
3-4	Record	3-2
4-3	ATS	3-2
5-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BU 72–77 NKU · ✓ NKU (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BU	29	36	65
NKU	24	50	74

1st half: BU 29, NKU 24 (BU by 5). The model had NKU by 2.4 and a total of 69.7 (actual 53).

Team stats

BU		NKU
23-41 56%	Field goals	23-60 38%
5-13 38%	3-pointers	8-29 28%
14-19 74%	Free throws	20-24 83%
24 6 off	Rebounds	33 18 off
12	Assists	11
4	Steals	10
4	Blocks	3
16	Turnovers	11
23	Fouls	17
34	Points in paint	28
2	Fast-break points	3

Players

BU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chance Gladden G	36	20	2	3	7-9	1-1
Mike McNair Jr. G	32	18	3	1	6-9	3-5
Ben Defty C	29	11	5	1	3-4	0-0
Sam Hughes F	27	0	3	3	0-4	0-2
Ben Roy G	26	2	1	1	1-3	0-2
Bench
Azmar Abdullah G	26	7	1	1	3-5	1-2
Malcolm Chimezie F	16	7	3	1	3-5	0-0
Donte Tisinger Jr. G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Quinn Nielsen F	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Peter Carr, Spencer Joyner, Kyrone Alexander, Ethan Okwuosa, Matai Baptiste, Andrew Bhesania, Otto Landrum

NKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dan Gherezgher G	33	23	3	1	8-20	4-11
LJ Wells F	31	14	5	0	5-10	1-2
Kael Robinson F	28	11	4	2	3-9	2-5
Tae Dozier G	27	5	6	2	2-4	1-3
Ethan Elliott G	20	0	2	2	0-5	0-3
Bench
Donovan Oday G	30	16	3	3	3-9	0-4
Donovan Rakotonanahary F	15	5	3	1	2-2	0-0
Shawn Nelson G	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Addison Archer F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bryce Darbyshire G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Ryan Tolliver, Juanma Ruiz, JJ Apathjang, Mitchel Minor

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NKU -7.5	NKU -4.2	BU +3.3	L NKU covered
Total	143.5	148.8	Over 5.3	L Under
Projected score	—	BU 72.3 · NKU 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NKU -2.4	BU -5.0
1H total	69.7	53
1H projected score	BU 33.6 · NKU 36.1	BU 29 · NKU 24

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BU WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	3-2
NKU LLWWW	3-2	60%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: BU away, as underdog; NKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BU OOUOO	5-2	71%	3-4
NKU OUOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	5-2 71%
NKUlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boston U

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +11.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 25	@PSU	L 87-96	+14.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

PSU

L 87-96

+5.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

PSU

L 87-96

+40.5

over 5under 2avg +11.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Kentucky

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +4.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +8.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 20	@CMU	W 90-66	+4.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsEKU	W 82-71	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 26	vsWOF	W 93-83	-3.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

CMU

W 90-66

+28.5

EKU

W 82-71

+6.5

WOF

W 93-83

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

CMU

W 90-66

+9.5

EKU

W 82-71

−3.5

WOF

W 93-83

+26.5

over 3under 2avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Boston University Terriers at Northern Kentucky Norse

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Boston U

N Kentucky

Boston U

N Kentucky