Boston University Terriers at Penn State Nittany Lions: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:00 PM ETBryce Jordan Center · at Penn State

#261BUBoston U87final

Final

#78PSUPenn State96▲ winner

Closing linePSU -14.5✓ BU covered by 5.5

Closing total142.5Over by 40.5

Season records: Boston U and Penn State
BU	This season	PSU
3-3	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	2-4
4-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BU 66–80 PSU · ✓ PSU (88%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BU	35	52	87
PSU	51	45	96

1st half: BU 35, PSU 51 (PSU by 16). The model had PSU by 8.1 and a total of 68.3 (actual 86).

Team stats

BU		PSU
31-54 57%	Field goals	30-52 58%
16-34 47%	3-pointers	8-19 42%
9-13 69%	Free throws	28-40 70%
26 6 off	Rebounds	28 10 off
20	Assists	15
2	Steals	5
6	Blocks	1
9	Turnovers	3
31	Fouls	13
26	Points in paint	38
5	Fast-break points	15

Players

BU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ben Roy G	30	11	0	4	4-6	1-2
Mike McNair Jr. G	28	28	5	2	10-15	7-11
Chance Gladden G	27	6	2	4	2-4	0-1
Ben Defty C	22	4	8	3	1-2	0-0
Sam Hughes F	21	10	1	1	3-9	2-7
Bench
Azmar Abdullah G	23	11	1	3	4-8	3-7
Malcolm Chimezie F	23	8	4	1	4-4	0-0
Ethan Okwuosa G	19	9	3	1	3-6	3-6
Donte Tisinger Jr. G	6	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Quinn Nielsen F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Peter Carr, Spencer Joyner, Kyrone Alexander, Matai Baptiste, Otto Landrum, Andrew Bhesania

PSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kayden Mingo G	31	14	4	4	5-9	1-3
Melih Tunca G	31	16	4	4	4-9	1-3
Ivan Juric F	28	15	3	1	4-4	0-0
Josh Reed F	26	17	8	1	5-6	1-1
Eli Rice G	22	11	1	2	3-6	2-4
Bench
Freddie Dilione V G	19	8	2	2	3-8	2-5
Dominick Stewart G	18	8	0	0	3-5	1-3
Tibor Mirtic F	13	5	1	0	2-2	0-0
Sasa Ciani F	12	2	2	1	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Justin Houser, Reggie Grodin, Chris Lotito, Mason Blackwood

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PSU -14.5	PSU -13.6	BU +0.9	W BU covered
Total	142.5	145.7	Over 3.2	W Over
Projected score	—	BU 66 · PSU 79.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PSU -8.1	PSU -16.0
1H total	68.3	86
1H projected score	BU 30.1 · PSU 38.2	BU 35 · PSU 51

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BU LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-2
PSU WLWLL	2-4	33%	0-3	2-3

Venue/role: BU away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BU UOOUO	4-2	67%	3-3
PSU UUOOU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%
PSUlast 6	5-1 83%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boston U

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +7.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

over 4under 2avg +7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn State

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

over 2under 4avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Boston University Terriers at Penn State Nittany Lions

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Boston U

Penn State

Boston U

Penn State