Penn State Nittany Lions vs La Salle Explorers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · Neutral site

#78PSUPenn State83▲ winner

Final

#124LASLa Salle69final

Closing linePSU -8.5✓ PSU covered by 5.5

Closing total145.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Penn State and La Salle
PSU	This season	LAS
3-0	Record	2-1
1-2	ATS	2-1
0-3	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PSU 80–70 LAS · ✓ PSU (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PSU	42	41	83
LAS	29	40	69

1st half: PSU 42, LAS 29 (PSU by 13). The model had PSU by 6.4 and a total of 70.0 (actual 71).

Team stats

PSU		LAS
33-57 58%	Field goals	25-50 50%
10-20 50%	3-pointers	7-16 44%
7-11 64%	Free throws	12-15 80%
25 6 off	Rebounds	28 8 off
21	Assists	16
5	Steals	1
1	Blocks	1
7	Turnovers	15
16	Fouls	14
44	Points in paint	30
14	Fast-break points	3

Players

PSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Melih Tunca G	32	20	2	4	8-9	4-4
Kayden Mingo G	31	14	4	7	6-12	1-5
Josh Reed F	28	7	1	2	2-7	1-2
Eli Rice G	13	2	0	1	0-1	0-1
Sasa Ciani F	10	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Ivan Juric F	30	11	6	2	5-6	0-0
Freddie Dilione V G	27	16	3	3	7-13	2-4
Dominick Stewart G	17	9	3	0	3-7	2-4
Tibor Mirtic F	11	4	2	1	2-2	0-0
Mason Blackwood F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Reggie Grodin, Chris Lotito, Justin Houser

LAS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jerome Brewer Jr. F	34	13	7	0	6-11	1-4
Ashton Walker G	30	13	3	6	5-7	1-2
Eric Acker G	25	11	2	5	4-9	2-3
Damon Strand G	19	5	2	1	2-5	1-2
Josiah Harris F	14	6	1	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Jaeden Marshall G	28	11	3	4	4-7	2-5
Justin Archer F	21	8	4	0	1-1	0-0
Rob Dockery G	17	0	1	0	0-3	0-0
Edwin Daniel F	12	2	3	0	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Noah Collier, Arlan Masharaliyev, Max Lipacis, Nas Hart, Josue Grullon, Jaden Johnson, Bowyn Beatty, Truth Harris

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PSU -8.5	PSU -10.3	PSU +1.8	W PSU covered
Total	145.5	149.4	Over 3.9	W Over
Projected score	—	PSU 79.9 · LAS 69.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PSU -6.4	PSU -13.0
1H total	70.0	71
1H projected score	PSU 38.2 · LAS 31.8	PSU 42 · LAS 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PSU LWL	1-2	33%	—	1-2
LAS WWL	2-1	67%	—	0-1

Venue/role: PSU neutral site, as favorite; LAS neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU UUU	0-3	0%	3-0
LAS OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSUlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%
LASlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Penn State

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

over 0under 3avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

La Salle

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsCOPP	W 87-59	-17.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 8	vsMONM	W 73-60	-4.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 11	@TEM	L 63-90	+6.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COPP

W 87-59

+10.5

MONM

W 73-60

+8.5

TEM

L 63-90

−20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COPP

W 87-59

+6.5

MONM

W 73-60

−10.5

TEM

L 63-90

+4.5

over 2under 1avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Penn State vs La Salle

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Penn State

La Salle

Penn State

La Salle