North Carolina Central Eagles at South Carolina Upstate Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:00 PM ETG.B. Hodge Center · at SC Upstate

#357NCCUNC Central67final

Final

#325UPSTSC Upstate82▲ winner

Closing lineUPST -7.5✓ UPST covered by 7.5

Closing total148.5Over by 0.5

Season records: NC Central and SC Upstate
NCCU	This season	UPST
0-5	Record	1-4
2-3	ATS	3-2
1-4	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NCCU 73–80 UPST · ✓ UPST (73%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NCCU	24	43	67
UPST	39	43	82

1st half: NCCU 24, UPST 39 (UPST by 15). The model had UPST by 4.1 and a total of 71.4 (actual 63).

Team stats

NCCU		UPST
19-60 32%	Field goals	27-53 51%
5-16 31%	3-pointers	9-20 45%
24-32 75%	Free throws	19-26 73%
35 16 off	Rebounds	39 12 off
10	Assists	20
8	Steals	5
2	Blocks	11
9	Turnovers	16
24	Fouls	22
22	Points in paint	34
14	Fast-break points	21

Players

NCCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Gage Lattimore G	40	17	5	3	2-9	1-3
Dionte Johnson G	26	6	3	4	2-4	0-1
Khouri Carvey F	25	12	6	1	4-12	0-1
Tekao Carpenter G	20	7	1	1	3-5	1-3
Jonathan Dunn F	15	1	2	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Kyric Davis G	24	9	6	0	3-8	0-1
Jae Slack F	17	11	3	0	3-7	3-5
Kelechi Okworogwo F	15	4	5	0	2-7	0-0
Ramondo Battle II F	14	0	1	1	0-5	0-2
Khalil Arnold G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Gbenga Olubi, Caleb Ellison, Camren Daniels, Justin Edwards, Ryan Archey

UPST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Karmani Gregory G	33	17	2	5	5-9	2-3
Mason Bendinger G	29	19	2	2	6-13	4-5
Carmelo Adkins G	27	8	5	3	2-8	2-6
Coen Collier C	19	4	5	2	2-4	0-1
Nic Book F	15	6	4	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
Jafeth Martinez F	19	16	5	0	5-5	0-0
Tyler Smith G	19	0	4	5	0-4	0-2
Learic Davis F	15	2	3	0	1-3	0-1
Isaiah Skinner G	14	5	4	2	2-2	1-1
Kanye Jones G	10	5	0	1	2-3	0-1

Did not play: Breylin Garcia, CJ Rich, TJ Lewis, Chico Johnson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UPST -7.5	UPST -7.0	NCCU +0.5	L UPST covered
Total	148.5	152.4	Over 3.9	W Over
Projected score	—	NCCU 72.7 · UPST 79.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UPST -4.1	UPST -15.0
1H total	71.4	63
1H projected score	NCCU 33.7 · UPST 37.7	NCCU 24 · UPST 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCCU LWLLW	2-3	40%	2-3	2-3
UPST WWWLL	3-2	60%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: NCCU away, as underdog; UPST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCCU OUUUU	1-4	20%	0-5
UPST OUUOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCCUlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%
UPSTlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NCCU 1–1 UPSTSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · NCCU 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 2, 2023-24	UPST 85 @ NCCU 82	NCCU -3	UPST W
Dec 1, 2021-22	NCCU 67 @ UPST 65	UPST -1.5	NCCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC Central

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NCSU	L 66-114	+31.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	@UVA	L 62-81	+34.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 9	@APP	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UNC	L 53-97	+34.5	L −9.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 22	@DAY	L 55-74	+29.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

−16.5

UVA

L 62-81

+15.5

APP

L 54-76

−11.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

+10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

+34.5

UVA

L 62-81

−8.5

APP

L 54-76

−6.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

−17.5

over 1under 4avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC Upstate

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

over 2under 3avg −8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Carolina Central Eagles at South Carolina Upstate Spartans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

NC Central

SC Upstate

NC Central

SC Upstate