Omaha Mavericks vs James Madison Dukes: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:00 PM ETOcean Bank Convocation Center · Neutral site

#279OMAOmaha77final

Final

Closing lineJMU -1.5✓ JMU covered by 9.5

Closing total152.5Over by 12.5

Season records: Omaha and James Madison
OMA	This season	JMU
1-4	Record	3-3
1-4	ATS	2-4
4-1	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OMA 78–81 JMU · ✓ JMU (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OMA	32	45	77
JMU	48	40	88

1st half: OMA 32, JMU 48 (JMU by 16). The model had JMU by 1.3 and a total of 74.6 (actual 80).

Team stats

OMA		JMU
30-61 49%	Field goals	32-58 55%
10-29 34%	3-pointers	17-30 57%
7-10 70%	Free throws	7-8 88%
29 10 off	Rebounds	30 8 off
19	Assists	28
5	Steals	8
5	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	9
9	Fouls	15
34	Points in paint	28
4	Fast-break points	10

Players

OMA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lance Waddles G	33	18	10	7	7-18	2-9
Tony Osburn G	28	10	0	5	4-9	2-5
Grant Stubblefield G	23	10	2	1	3-6	2-4
Brock Scholl F	19	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Kamryn Thomas F	15	0	1	3	0-3	0-2
Bench
Khamani Cooper G	30	16	2	0	6-9	3-5
Ja'Sean Glover G	27	8	6	3	3-5	1-3
Christian Richardson C	20	11	3	0	5-5	0-0
Valentino Simon F	4	2	2	0	1-3	0-1
Julian Margrave F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Benji Nelson, Aidan Skradis, Rob Matos, Paul Djobet, Isaac Ondekane, Deng Mayar

JMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eddie Ricks III F	31	3	4	5	1-3	1-2
Justin McBride F	29	24	5	1	9-11	3-3
Bradley Douglas G	29	9	1	8	3-13	3-7
Cliff Davis G	21	15	4	4	6-9	3-5
Gabe Newhof F	19	10	1	1	4-6	0-0
Bench
Paul Jones III G	19	3	1	3	1-3	1-3
Preston Fowler F	18	18	2	3	6-8	6-8
Elijah Wilborn F	11	0	4	0	0-0	0-0
Paul Lewis G	11	0	0	2	0-2	0-2
Christian Brown F	10	6	3	1	2-3	0-0
Justin Taylor G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ike Cornish, Josh Stephen, Chance Lundy, Kose Egbule

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	JMU -1.5	JMU -2.5	JMU +1.0	W JMU covered
Total	152.5	159.3	Over 6.8	W Over
Projected score	—	OMA 78.4 · JMU 80.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JMU -1.3	JMU -16.0
1H total	74.6	80
1H projected score	OMA 36.6 · JMU 38	OMA 32 · JMU 48

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OMA LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	1-3
JMU LLLWW	2-4	33%	—	0-2

Venue/role: OMA neutral site, as underdog; JMU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OMA OUOOO	4-1	80%	1-4
JMU OOOOU	5-1	83%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OMAlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	4-1 80%
JMUlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Omaha

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +9.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMUR	L 77-85	+5.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 6	@ACU	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 144
Nov 9	@CSU	L 74-97	+14.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 171
Nov 15	vsSUU	W 90-85	-8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 175
Nov 21	@LSU	L 73-99	+20.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

−2.5

ACU

L 71-73

+2.5

CSU

L 74-97

−8.5

SUU

W 90-85

−3.5

LSU

L 73-99

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

+8.5

ACU

L 71-73

−6.5

CSU

L 74-97

+17.5

SUU

W 90-85

+21.5

LSU

L 73-99

+8.5

over 4under 1avg +9.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

James Madison

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AKR	L 71-85	+8.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 9	vsCOPP	W 84-70	-18.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@LONG	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	@LIU	L 79-88	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 18	vsTOW	W 81-75	+3.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	@FIU	W 80-72	+2.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

−5.5

COPP

W 84-70

−4.5

LONG

L 72-82

−11.5

LIU

L 79-88

−5.5

TOW

W 81-75

+9.5

FIU

W 80-72

+10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

+2.5

COPP

W 84-70

+12.5

LONG

L 72-82

+4.5

LIU

L 79-88

+19.5

TOW

W 81-75

+15.5

FIU

W 80-72

−3.5

over 5under 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Omaha Mavericks vs James Madison Dukes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Omaha

James Madison

Omaha

James Madison