Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Ohio State Buckeyes: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 6:30 PM ETSchottenstein Center · at Ohio State

Final

#33OSUOhio State113▲ winner

Closing lineOSU -30.5✓ OSU covered by 22.5

Closing total151.5Over by 21.5

Season records: Mount St Marys and Ohio State
MSM	This season	OSU
1-5	Record	5-0
4-2	ATS	2-3
1-5	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MSM 63–89 OSU · ✓ OSU (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MSM	26	34	60
OSU	52	61	113

1st half: MSM 26, OSU 52 (OSU by 26). The model had OSU by 15.5 and a total of 71.0 (actual 78).

Team stats

MSM		OSU
22-59 37%	Field goals	41-64 64%
6-32 19%	3-pointers	15-31 48%
10-18 56%	Free throws	16-19 84%
22 8 off	Rebounds	41 7 off
14	Assists	19
4	Steals	7
1	Blocks	0
13	Turnovers	8
18	Fouls	17
26	Points in paint	44
2	Fast-break points	12

Players

MSM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xavier Lipscomb G	32	4	2	3	1-5	1-4
Mason So G	32	10	2	6	3-9	1-4
Anastasios Rozakeas G	29	6	1	2	2-7	2-7
Arlandus Keyes G	28	13	5	1	5-16	2-11
Luke McEldon F	28	19	8	2	9-15	0-1
Bench
Patrick Haigh G	25	2	0	0	1-5	0-4
Yakhya Diop F	12	4	1	0	1-1	0-0
Elijah Espinosa F	11	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
John Miller IV G	3	1	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Noah Rogers, Justin Amadi, Jaxon Hartman, Abdou Khadre Kebe, Trey Deveaux, Justin May, Anthony Arrington Jr.

OSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Devin Royal F	30	17	3	4	7-10	2-4
Bruce Thornton G	28	14	5	5	5-8	2-3
John Mobley Jr. G	26	26	4	1	10-15	4-9
Brandon Noel F	23	9	7	0	3-5	1-1
Christoph Tilly C	14	12	5	3	3-6	1-3
Bench
Amare Bynum F	22	8	3	3	2-4	1-2
Ivan Njegovan C	16	15	4	0	7-7	1-1
Gabe Cupps G	14	0	2	1	0-1	0-1
Taison Chatman G	10	9	0	0	3-4	3-4
Mathieu Grujicic G	9	1	2	1	0-3	0-3
Colin White F	6	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Braylen Nash G	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Myles Herro, Josh Ojianwuna

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OSU -30.5	OSU -25.9	MSM +4.6	L OSU covered
Total	151.5	151.5	—	Over
Projected score	—	MSM 62.8 · OSU 88.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OSU -15.5	OSU -26.0
1H total	71.0	78
1H projected score	MSM 27.7 · OSU 43.2	MSM 26 · OSU 52

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSM LWWWL	4-2	67%	4-1	3-1
OSU LWLLW	2-3	40%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: MSM away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSM UUUOU	1-5	17%	1-5
OSU OOUUU	2-3	40%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSMlast 6	1-5 17%	4-2 67%	1-5 17%
OSUlast 5	5-0 100%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mount St Marys

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 19	@MD	L 90-95	+17.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 23	@WMU	L 60-83	+1.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

L 90-95

+12.5

WMU

L 60-83

−21.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

L 90-95

+39.5

WMU

L 60-83

−7.5

over 1under 5avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ohio State

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsIUIN	W 118-102	-33.5	L −17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 7	vsPFW	W 94-68	-24.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsAPP	W 75-53	-23.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 128
Nov 16	vsND	W 64-63	-9.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 20	vsWMU	W 91-58	-26.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

−17.5

PFW

W 94-68

+1.5

APP

W 75-53

−1.5

W 64-63

−8.5

WMU

W 91-58

+6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

+47.5

PFW

W 94-68

+2.5

APP

W 75-53

−19.5

W 64-63

−29.5

WMU

W 91-58

−10.5

over 2under 3avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Ohio State Buckeyes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Mount St Marys

Ohio State

Mount St Marys

Ohio State