Western Michigan Broncos at Ohio State Buckeyes: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ETSchottenstein Center · at Ohio State

Final

#33OSUOhio State91▲ winner

Closing lineOSU -26.5✓ OSU covered by 6.5

Closing total159.5Under by 10.5

Season records: W Michigan and Ohio State
WMU	This season	OSU
2-2	Record	4-0
3-1	ATS	1-3
2-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WMU 69–91 OSU · ✓ OSU (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WMU	24	34	58
OSU	49	42	91

1st half: WMU 24, OSU 49 (OSU by 25). The model had OSU by 13.3 and a total of 75.0 (actual 73).

Team stats

WMU		OSU
21-62 34%	Field goals	32-65 49%
5-22 23%	3-pointers	9-29 31%
11-15 73%	Free throws	18-23 78%
30 11 off	Rebounds	49 17 off
9	Assists	22
7	Steals	9
0	Blocks	2
16	Turnovers	12
19	Fouls	14
26	Points in paint	46
10	Fast-break points	16

Players

WMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
EJ Ryans G	30	2	0	3	1-5	0-2
Jayden Brewer G	27	12	5	0	4-13	0-1
Max Burton F	18	4	4	1	0-3	0-0
Jalen Griffith G	13	6	0	0	3-9	0-4
Hudson Ward F	9	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Brady Swartz G	31	20	9	0	7-13	4-8
Carson Vis G	23	5	3	2	2-8	0-4
Sharod Barnes G	15	0	2	2	0-2	0-0
Michael Sulaka F	13	4	3	1	2-4	0-0
Nicholas Errica G	9	5	0	0	2-4	1-3
Declan Peterson C	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Junior Sileu F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Trey Lewis G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Justice Williams, Camden Thompson

OSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
John Mobley Jr. G	28	15	3	3	6-12	2-7
Bruce Thornton G	26	11	2	4	3-5	3-4
Christoph Tilly C	24	17	2	7	5-11	1-4
Devin Royal F	22	10	10	1	3-7	0-2
Brandon Noel F	21	8	3	0	4-5	0-0
Bench
Amare Bynum F	19	12	10	1	5-11	1-4
Ivan Njegovan C	16	5	6	2	2-4	0-1
Gabe Cupps G	13	5	0	2	2-3	1-2
Colin White F	12	3	5	1	1-3	0-1
Mathieu Grujicic G	11	2	3	1	0-3	0-3
Taison Chatman G	7	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
Braylen Nash G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Myles Herro, Josh Ojianwuna

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OSU -26.5	OSU -22.4	WMU +4.1	L OSU covered
Total	159.5	160.1	Over 0.6	L Under
Projected score	—	WMU 68.9 · OSU 91.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OSU -13.3	OSU -25.0
1H total	75.0	73
1H projected score	WMU 30.8 · OSU 44.2	WMU 24 · OSU 49

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1
OSU LWLL	1-3	25%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2
OSU OOUU	2-2	50%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMUlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
OSUlast 4	4-0 100%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WMU 0–1 OSUOSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WMU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 19, 2023-24	WMU 56 @ OSU 73	OSU -21.5	WMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Michigan

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCCU	W 76-71	-2.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 9	@CAM	L 82-91	+9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 12	vsPFW	W 83-71	+3.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 16	@SDAK	L 78-83	+3.5	L −1.5	172.5	U 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+2.5

CAM

L 82-91

+0.5

PFW

W 83-71

+15.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+0.5

CAM

L 82-91

+20.5

PFW

W 83-71

−7.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−11.5

over 2under 2avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ohio State

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsIUIN	W 118-102	-33.5	L −17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 7	vsPFW	W 94-68	-24.5	W +1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsAPP	W 75-53	-23.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 128
Nov 16	vsND	W 64-63	-9.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

−17.5

PFW

W 94-68

+1.5

APP

W 75-53

−1.5

W 64-63

−8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IUIN

W 118-102

+47.5

PFW

W 94-68

+2.5

APP

W 75-53

−19.5

W 64-63

−29.5

over 2under 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

W Michigan @ Ohio State

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

W Michigan

Ohio State

W Michigan

Ohio State