Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETXFINITY Center · at Maryland

Final

#50MDMaryland95▲ winner

Closing lineMD -17.5✓ MSM covered by 12.5

Closing total145.5Over by 39.5

Season records: Mount St Marys and Maryland
MSM	This season	MD
1-3	Record	3-1
3-1	ATS	1-3
0-4	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MSM 60–82 MD · ✓ MD (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
MSM	32	45	13	90
MD	40	37	18	95

1st half: MSM 32, MD 40 (MD by 8). The model had MD by 12.8 and a total of 66.5 (actual 72).

Team stats

MSM		MD
31-65 48%	Field goals	23-57 40%
17-36 47%	3-pointers	12-27 44%
11-16 69%	Free throws	37-47 79%
37 12 off	Rebounds	35 13 off
18	Assists	8
3	Steals	9
4	Blocks	1
19	Turnovers	11
29	Fouls	15
26	Points in paint	16
8	Fast-break points	8

Players

MSM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xavier Lipscomb G	39	17	6	5	5-8	4-6
Justin Amadi F	34	10	9	0	4-8	0-0
Luke McEldon F	29	8	6	2	4-7	0-0
Anastasios Rozakeas G	24	9	3	2	3-11	3-9
Mason So G	20	9	2	2	2-6	2-5
Bench
Trey Deveaux F	31	13	5	4	5-10	1-4
Arlandus Keyes G	31	22	1	2	7-13	7-11
Patrick Haigh G	8	0	2	1	0-1	0-1
Yakhya Diop F	6	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Elijah Espinosa F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Justin May, Noah Rogers, John Miller IV, Abdou Khadre Kebe, Jaxon Hartman, Anthony Arrington Jr.

MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Saunders F	44	14	5	1	4-12	2-6
Darius Adams G	39	19	7	0	1-4	0-3
David Coit G	39	41	2	3	11-17	8-10
Andre Mills G	36	12	8	1	4-12	0-3
Collin Metcalf C	15	0	4	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Watts G	37	6	5	3	2-8	1-3
Aleks Alston F	10	3	2	0	1-2	1-2
Guillermo Del Pino G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Nick Blake, Jaziah Harper, Lukas Sotell, Pharrel Payne, Solomon Washington, Rakease Passmore, George Turkson Jr., Myles Rice

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MD -17.5	MD -21.5	MD +4.0	L MSM covered
Total	145.5	141.8	Under 3.7	L Over
Projected score	—	MSM 60.2 · MD 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MD -12.8	MD -8.0
1H total	66.5	72
1H projected score	MSM 26.8 · MD 39.6	MSM 32 · MD 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSM WLWW	3-1	75%	3-0	2-0
MD LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: MSM away, as underdog; MD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSM UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3
MD OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSMlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	0-4 0%
MDlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MSM 0–2 MDMD leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MD has won the last 2 meetings · MSM 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2024-25	MSM 52 @ MD 86	MD -23.5	MD W
Nov 7, 2023-24	MSM 53 @ MD 68	MD -20.5	MSM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mount St Marys

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −12.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

over 0under 4avg −12.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maryland

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOPP	W 83-61	-28.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 7	vsGTWN	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsALCN	W 84-64	-29.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 15	@MARQ	W 89-82	+8.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

−6.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

−9.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

+4.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

+1.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+24.5

over 3under 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mount St Marys

Maryland

Mount St Marys

Maryland