Wyoming Cowboys at Sam Houston Bearkats: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:30 PM ETBernard G. Johnson Coliseum · at Sam Houston

#122WYOWyoming70final

Final

#189SHSUSam Houston78▲ winner

Closing lineSHSU -1.5✓ SHSU covered by 6.5

Closing total156.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Wyoming and Sam Houston
WYO	This season	SHSU
3-0	Record	0-2
2-1	ATS	2-0
1-2	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WYO 78–78 SHSU · ✗ WYO (51%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WYO	32	38	70
SHSU	37	41	78

1st half: WYO 32, SHSU 37 (SHSU by 5). The model had WYO by 0.4 and a total of 73.0 (actual 69).

Team stats

WYO		SHSU
28-62 45%	Field goals	22-52 42%
5-23 22%	3-pointers	5-20 25%
9-22 41%	Free throws	29-33 88%
39 17 off	Rebounds	38 11 off
17	Assists	10
7	Steals	7
2	Blocks	6
15	Turnovers	15
22	Fouls	18
44	Points in paint	34
7	Fast-break points	16

Players

WYO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Leland Walker G	33	24	5	6	10-18	2-6
Khaden Bennett G	26	3	5	3	0-5	0-3
Matija Belic F	21	2	3	3	1-3	0-2
Abou Magassa F	18	10	6	1	4-6	0-0
Damarion Dennis G	13	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Nasir Meyer G	20	11	4	1	4-11	2-6
Jared Harris G	18	6	5	1	3-5	0-1
Gavin Gores F	17	7	0	0	3-3	0-0
Kiani Saxon F	12	2	4	2	1-4	0-1
Uriyah Rojas G	10	2	0	0	1-3	0-1
Adam Harakow G	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Simm-Marten Saadi F	5	3	0	0	1-3	1-2

Did not play: Garrett Spielman, Talan Taylor, Neil Summers

SHSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Damon Nicholas Jr. G	32	11	14	2	3-9	1-4
Po'Boigh King G	28	11	1	1	2-6	2-5
Justin Begg G	27	4	0	3	1-4	0-2
Veljko Ilic F	26	18	4	0	5-6	0-0
Kashie Natt G	24	6	5	2	2-6	0-2
Bench
Isaiah Manning G	24	15	4	0	5-8	2-3
Jacob Walker G	13	5	0	2	1-6	0-1
Jacobe Coleman G	12	4	3	0	1-5	0-3
Jaxson Ford F	11	4	6	0	2-2	0-0
Matt Dann F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jackson Rogers, Cheikh Sadibou Ndiaye, Noah Benny, Nathan Nguyen, CJ Beaumont

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SHSU -1.5	WYO -0.4	WYO +1.9	L SHSU covered
Total	156.5	155.8	Under 0.7	W Under
Projected score	—	WYO 78.1 · SHSU 77.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WYO -0.4	SHSU -5.0
1H total	73.0	69
1H projected score	WYO 36.7 · SHSU 36.3	WYO 32 · SHSU 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO LWW	2-1	67%	—	—
SHSU WW	2-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: WYO away, as underdog; SHSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
SHSU OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYOlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
SHSUlast 2	0-2 0%	2-0 100%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wyoming

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +9.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsCSUF	W 92-82	-15.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 11	vsAPSU	W 79-65	-5.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	vsPORT	W 93-56	-11.5	W +25.5	160.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUF

W 92-82

−5.5

APSU

W 79-65

+8.5

PORT

W 93-56

+25.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUF

W 92-82

+19.5

APSU

W 79-65

−9.5

PORT

W 93-56

−11.5

over 1under 2avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Sam Houston

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@TTU	L 77-98	+31.5	W +10.5	156.5	O 175
Nov 15	@UTAH	L 79-85	+12.5	W +6.5	159.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 77-98

+10.5

UTAH

L 79-85

+6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 77-98

+18.5

UTAH

L 79-85

+4.5

over 2under 0avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wyoming Cowboys at Sam Houston Bearkats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Wyoming

Sam Houston

Wyoming

Sam Houston