Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Duquesne Dukes: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETUPMC Cooper Fieldhouse · at Duquesne

#314L-MDLoyola MD78final

Final

#107DUQDuquesne92▲ winner

Closing lineDUQ -14.5✓ L-MD covered by 0.5

Closing total150.5Over by 19.5

Season records: Loyola MD and Duquesne
L-MD	This season	DUQ
1-3	Record	3-1
2-2	ATS	2-2
1-3	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: L-MD 68–84 DUQ · ✓ DUQ (91%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
L-MD	36	42	78
DUQ	47	45	92

1st half: L-MD 36, DUQ 47 (DUQ by 11). The model had DUQ by 9.1 and a total of 71.3 (actual 83).

Team stats

L-MD		DUQ
28-58 48%	Field goals	32-58 55%
9-25 36%	3-pointers	8-23 35%
13-21 62%	Free throws	20-26 77%
25 6 off	Rebounds	39 12 off
16	Assists	21
10	Steals	8
1	Blocks	1
12	Turnovers	17
20	Fouls	18
36	Points in paint	44
10	Fast-break points	26

Players

L-MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Stiemke G	33	11	0	2	5-13	1-6
Braeden Speed G	32	11	5	5	2-8	2-5
Jacob Theodosiou G	32	21	3	4	7-13	1-4
Jonas Sirtautas F	20	10	2	1	5-7	0-1
Sam Springer F	17	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Emmett Adair F	18	11	3	1	4-7	3-5
Tyson Commander G	15	5	3	0	2-2	1-1
Sebastien Emenalo F	11	4	3	1	1-2	0-1
Troy Cicero Jr. G	10	3	2	0	1-2	1-2
Everett Barnes F	5	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Carter Berg-McLean G	4	2	0	1	1-2	0-0
Ben Menker G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Garrett Brennan G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Peter Sposito G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Goap Kodi

DUQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jakub Necas F	32	7	10	0	3-4	1-1
Cam Crawford G	31	19	4	2	8-12	3-6
Tarence Guinyard G	31	19	2	6	6-12	2-4
Jimmie Williams G	31	8	9	4	2-8	1-7
John Hugley IV F	28	20	5	3	7-8	1-1
Bench
David Dixon F	17	10	3	2	4-6	0-0
Dom Aekins G	9	1	0	1	0-2	0-1
Alex Williams F	7	2	2	0	1-3	0-2
Brandon Hall G	7	2	0	2	0-0	0-0
Maximus Edwards G	4	2	0	0	0-2	0-1
Stef van Bussel C	3	2	0	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Arness Lawson, Ethan Anish, Frederik Jellum, Lazar Milosevic, Seamus McDermott, Lucas Prolla, Jake DiMichele

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DUQ -14.5	DUQ -15.3	DUQ +0.8	L L-MD covered
Total	150.5	152.2	Over 1.7	W Over
Projected score	—	L-MD 68.4 · DUQ 83.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DUQ -9.1	DUQ -11.0
1H total	71.3	83
1H projected score	L-MD 31.1 · DUQ 40.2	L-MD 36 · DUQ 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
L-MD LLWW	2-2	50%	1-0	1-1
DUQ WLLW	2-2	50%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: L-MD away, as underdog; DUQ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
L-MD UUUO	1-3	25%	1-3
DUQ OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
L-MDlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
DUQlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Loyola MD

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTOW	L 56-67	+8.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsNJIT	L 64-66	-10.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsSTO	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 16	@FAIR	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−2.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−12.5

STO

W 74-63

+4.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−18.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−9.5

STO

W 74-63

−1.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+31.5

over 1under 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Duquesne

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNIA	W 83-63	-17.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsSHU	W 92-80	-12.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsQUC	W 87-81	-12.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	@VILL	L 77-87	+10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIA

W 83-63

+2.5

SHU

W 92-80

−0.5

QUC

W 87-81

−6.5

VILL

L 77-87

+0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIA

W 83-63

+6.5

SHU

W 92-80

+14.5

QUC

W 87-81

+5.5

VILL

L 77-87

+12.5

over 4under 0avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Duquesne Dukes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Loyola MD

Duquesne

Loyola MD

Duquesne