James Madison Dukes at Florida International Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 7:00 PM ETOcean Bank Convocation Center · at FIU

Final

#178FIUFIU72final

Closing lineFIU -2.5✓ JMU covered by 10.5

Closing total155.5Under by 3.5

Season records: James Madison and FIU
JMU	This season	FIU
2-3	Record	0-2
1-4	ATS	1-1
5-0	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JMU 76–80 FIU · ✗ FIU (64%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JMU	41	39	80
FIU	45	27	72

1st half: JMU 41, FIU 45 (FIU by 4). The model had FIU by 2.3 and a total of 73.0 (actual 86).

Team stats

JMU		FIU
24-68 35%	Field goals	23-66 35%
10-34 29%	3-pointers	10-31 32%
22-30 73%	Free throws	16-27 59%
56 25 off	Rebounds	42 18 off
12	Assists	14
4	Steals	5
7	Blocks	7
10	Turnovers	7
23	Fouls	24
28	Points in paint	18
4	Fast-break points	8

Players

JMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eddie Ricks III F	35	8	7	1	3-9	1-4
Bradley Douglas G	30	11	4	5	1-7	0-3
Justin McBride F	29	26	9	3	8-14	3-6
Cliff Davis G	28	6	3	0	2-11	2-10
Gabe Newhof F	11	0	2	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Christian Brown F	19	5	11	1	2-6	0-1
Paul Jones III G	12	6	1	1	2-4	2-4
Preston Fowler F	11	6	0	1	2-6	2-6
Elijah Wilborn F	10	6	6	0	3-4	0-0
Paul Lewis G	10	5	3	0	1-5	0-0
Justin Taylor G	5	1	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kose Egbule, Chance Lundy, Josh Stephen, Ike Cornish

FIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eric Dibami C	29	0	8	1	0-5	0-0
Corey Stephenson G	29	25	8	0	10-22	5-14
Zawdie Jackson G	25	7	2	5	2-6	1-3
Ashton Williamson G	24	10	2	2	3-12	1-7
Hamed Olayinka F	24	7	7	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Julian Mackey G	24	11	2	1	3-10	2-6
Brit Harris G	22	4	4	4	1-3	1-1
Ibrahim Olajuwon C	14	8	1	0	3-3	0-0
Thiago Sucatzky G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Kennedy Brown F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Mikey Kelvin II, Gvidas Gicevicius, Renato Ruiz, Amarion Nimmers, Jorge Santos

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FIU -2.5	FIU -4.1	FIU +1.6	L JMU covered
Total	155.5	155.9	Over 0.4	L Under
Projected score	—	JMU 75.9 · FIU 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FIU -2.3	FIU -4.0
1H total	73.0	86
1H projected score	JMU 35.4 · FIU 37.7	JMU 41 · FIU 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-3	1-2
FIU LW	1-1	50%	—	—

Venue/role: JMU away, as underdog; FIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU OOOOO	5-0	100%	2-3
FIU OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMUlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	5-0 100%
FIUlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

James Madison

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-0

100% overs · avg +10.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-0100%

O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AKR	L 71-85	+8.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 9	vsCOPP	W 84-70	-18.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@LONG	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	@LIU	L 79-88	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 18	vsTOW	W 81-75	+3.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

−5.5

COPP

W 84-70

−4.5

LONG

L 72-82

−11.5

LIU

L 79-88

−5.5

TOW

W 81-75

+9.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

+2.5

COPP

W 84-70

+12.5

LONG

L 72-82

+4.5

LIU

L 79-88

+19.5

TOW

W 81-75

+15.5

over 5under 0avg +10.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

FIU

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +13 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEB	L 66-96	+21.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 13	@LSU	L 81-98	+21.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

−8.5

LSU

L 81-98

+4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

+5.5

LSU

L 81-98

+20.5

over 2under 0avg +13 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

James Madison @ FIU

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

James Madison

FIU

James Madison

FIU