Northern Kentucky Norse at Central Michigan Chippewas: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETMcGuirk Arena · at C Michigan

#230NKUN Kentucky90▲ winner

Final

Closing lineCMU -4.5✓ NKU covered by 28.5

Closing total146.5Over by 9.5

Season records: N Kentucky and C Michigan
NKU	This season	CMU
0-2	Record	2-2
0-2	ATS	3-1
1-1	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NKU 72–76 CMU · ✗ CMU (62%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NKU	44	46	90
CMU	30	36	66

1st half: NKU 44, CMU 30 (NKU by 14). The model had CMU by 2.0 and a total of 69.2 (actual 74).

Team stats

NKU		CMU
34-64 53%	Field goals	25-53 47%
13-27 48%	3-pointers	5-17 29%
9-13 69%	Free throws	11-18 61%
32 13 off	Rebounds	32 12 off
26	Assists	17
14	Steals	3
3	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	19
18	Fouls	11
36	Points in paint	36
25	Fast-break points	0

Players

NKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
LJ Wells F	32	13	9	5	5-8	0-1
Ethan Elliott G	27	7	1	8	3-6	1-2
Kael Robinson F	26	17	3	2	6-10	4-5
Tae Dozier G	26	9	6	4	3-5	1-3
Dan Gherezgher G	24	13	0	2	5-14	3-8
Bench
Donovan Oday G	27	20	4	2	7-13	3-6
Donovan Rakotonanahary F	12	4	2	2	2-2	0-0
Addison Archer F	10	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Shawn Nelson G	10	7	2	1	3-4	1-2
Bryce Darbyshire G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: JJ Apathjang, Juanma Ruiz, Ryan Tolliver, Mitchel Minor

CMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nathan Claerbaut C	28	10	6	0	5-7	0-0
Phat Phat Brooks G	28	10	2	2	2-10	0-2
Tamario Adley G	26	8	2	5	3-6	0-0
Logan McIntire G	24	11	4	5	3-10	3-9
Nick Mullen F	21	12	4	0	6-6	0-0
Bench
Jaxson Whitaker G	23	6	1	1	2-4	2-4
Keenan Garner F	17	3	3	1	1-1	0-0
Rodney Johnson Jr. F	14	4	4	1	2-5	0-1
Will Ashford G	10	2	1	1	1-3	0-0
Kayden Nation F	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Jorden Brooks G	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kareem Aburashed, Jalen Kampen, Nsikan Usen, Uchenna Amene

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CMU -4.5	CMU -3.6	NKU +0.9	W NKU covered
Total	146.5	147.6	Over 1.1	W Over
Projected score	—	NKU 72 · CMU 75.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CMU -2.0	NKU -14.0
1H total	69.2	74
1H projected score	NKU 33.6 · CMU 35.6	NKU 44 · CMU 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NKU LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2
CMU WLWW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: NKU away, as underdog; CMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NKU OU	1-1	50%	0-2
CMU OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NKUlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
CMUlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Kentucky

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

over 1under 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

C Michigan

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAPP	W 82-66	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 8	@BRAD	L 54-85	+9.5	L −21.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 13	vsUSA	L 64-66	+5.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsCOPP	W 82-59	-10.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+14.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−21.5

USA

L 64-66

+3.5

COPP

W 82-59

+12.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

APP

W 82-66

+5.5

BRAD

L 54-85

−8.5

USA

L 64-66

−12.5

COPP

W 82-59

−1.5

over 1under 3avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Kentucky @ C Michigan

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Kentucky

C Michigan

N Kentucky

C Michigan