Bellarmine Knights at Murray State Racers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 3:00 PM ETCFSB Center · at Murray St

#295BELLBellarmine68final

Final

#132MURMurray St81▲ winner

Closing lineMUR -16.5✓ BELL covered by 3.5

Closing total157.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Bellarmine and Murray St
BELL	This season	MUR
2-4	Record	6-3
4-2	ATS	6-3
4-2	O/U	7-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BELL 74–88 MUR · ✓ MUR (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BELL	34	34	68
MUR	47	34	81

1st half: BELL 34, MUR 47 (MUR by 13). The model had MUR by 8.5 and a total of 76.1 (actual 81).

Team stats

BELL		MUR
25-49 51%	Field goals	30-57 53%
6-18 33%	3-pointers	11-30 37%
12-16 75%	Free throws	10-11 91%
18 2 off	Rebounds	35 10 off
14	Assists	18
8	Steals	4
0	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	13
12	Fouls	13
36	Points in paint	28
6	Fast-break points	6

Players

BELL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brian Waddell F	37	25	6	5	8-11	2-4
Kenyon Goodin G	36	5	2	0	2-7	1-4
Jack Karasinski F	34	21	4	1	8-12	2-4
Sam Donald F	22	3	1	3	1-4	1-4
Grant Whitaker G	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Michael Wilson Jr. G	18	4	1	1	2-5	0-1
Darrius Bolden G	17	2	1	3	1-2	0-0
Donovan Hunter F	12	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Myles Watkins G	11	6	0	1	2-4	0-0
Jacob Wassler F	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Tommy Clark, Ant McAfee, Dominique Murphy, Grant Neal, Tyler Doyle, Luke Anderson

MUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
JJ Traynor F	27	17	6	2	8-12	1-5
Layne Taylor G	25	3	0	2	1-6	1-5
Mason Miller F	23	6	5	1	2-4	2-4
Javon Jackson G	23	14	1	4	4-7	2-3
Fredrick King C	19	12	9	1	5-8	0-0
Bench
Roman Domon G	24	16	5	3	6-8	2-3
Brayden Shorter G	17	3	2	1	1-4	1-4
Mathis Courbon G	17	3	3	3	1-4	1-3
KJ Tenner G	15	5	1	1	1-2	1-2
Dylan Anderson F	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Brock Vice F	4	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Ben Shtolzberg, Tristian Ford, Lachlan Crate, Dillon Butler

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MUR -16.5	MUR -14.3	BELL +2.2	W BELL covered
Total	157.5	162.6	Over 5.1	L Under
Projected score	—	BELL 74.2 · MUR 88.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MUR -8.5	MUR -13.0
1H total	76.1	81
1H projected score	BELL 33.8 · MUR 42.3	BELL 34 · MUR 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BELL WLWWW	4-2	67%	3-1	3-2
MUR WLLWW	6-3	67%	4-0	5-1

Venue/role: BELL away, as underdog; MUR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BELL OOOUU	4-2	67%	2-4
MUR OOUOU	7-2	78%	6-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BELLlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
MURlast 9	6-3 67%	6-3 67%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BELL 1–1 MURSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · BELL 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 10, 2022-23	MUR 58 @ BELL 69	BELL +2.5	BELL W
Nov 13, 2021-22	BELL 59 @ MUR 78	MUR -9	MUR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bellarmine

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UGA	L 59-104	+23.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 8	@KSU	L 71-98	+28.5	W +1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 15	vsWOF	L 86-94	+3.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 180
Nov 19	@ND	L 79-86	+24.5	W +17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	@CIT	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsHCU	W 74-69	+2.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

−21.5

KSU

L 71-98

+1.5

WOF

L 86-94

−4.5

L 79-86

+17.5

CIT

W 70-58

+8.5

HCU

W 74-69

+7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

+12.5

KSU

L 71-98

+0.5

WOF

L 86-94

+23.5

L 79-86

+14.5

CIT

W 70-58

−28.5

HCU

W 74-69

−1.5

over 4under 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Murray St

9 games played

Straight up

6-3

67% wins

Against the spread

6-3

67% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-2

78% overs · avg +6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-367%

W W L W W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-367%

W W L W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-278%

O O O O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsOMA	W 85-77	-5.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMVSU	W 108-60	-38.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 11	@SMU	L 91-102	+10.5	L −0.5	164.5	O 193
Nov 15	vsNICH	W 99-79	-14.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 18	vsLR	W 89-68	-13.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 23	vsMTSU	L 87-90	-6.5	L −9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsMCN	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsGW	W 96-95	+7.5	W +8.5	167.5	O 191
Dec 2	vsMORE	W 84-52	-16.5	W +15.5	158.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+2.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+9.5

SMU

L 91-102

−0.5

NICH

W 99-79

+5.5

W 89-68

+7.5

MTSU

L 87-90

−9.5

MCN

L 60-73

−10.5

W 96-95

+8.5

W 84-52

+15.5

covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+8.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+8.5

SMU

L 91-102

+28.5

NICH

W 99-79

+20.5

W 89-68

+3.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+15.5

MCN

L 60-73

−25.5

W 96-95

+23.5

W 84-52

−22.5

over 7under 2avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bellarmine @ Murray St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Bellarmine

Murray St

Bellarmine

Murray St