Murray State Racers vs McNeese Cowboys: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 7:30 PM ETJohn Gray Gymnasium · Neutral site

#132MURMurray St60final

Final

#127MCNMcNeese73▲ winner

Closing lineMCN -2.5✓ MCN covered by 10.5

Closing total158.5Under by 25.5

Season records: Murray St and McNeese
MUR	This season	MCN
4-2	Record	2-1
4-2	ATS	2-1
6-0	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MUR 79–82 MCN · ✓ MCN (60%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MUR	17	43	60
MCN	40	33	73

1st half: MUR 17, MCN 40 (MCN by 23). The model had MCN by 1.5 and a total of 75.4 (actual 57).

Team stats

MUR		MCN
18-57 32%	Field goals	29-70 41%
9-33 27%	3-pointers	5-23 22%
15-26 58%	Free throws	10-19 53%
48 15 off	Rebounds	40 13 off
12	Assists	16
4	Steals	15
4	Blocks	5
20	Turnovers	8
18	Fouls	23
14	Points in paint	44
8	Fast-break points	27

Players

MUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Layne Taylor G	31	8	6	4	1-7	1-6
JJ Traynor F	23	5	2	2	2-5	0-2
Javon Jackson G	23	3	4	2	1-10	0-3
Mason Miller F	21	14	5	0	4-6	4-5
Fredrick King C	20	3	12	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Mathis Courbon G	19	1	1	0	0-3	0-2
Roman Domon G	18	14	7	1	4-6	2-3
Brayden Shorter G	16	6	1	2	2-11	2-11
Brock Vice F	15	4	3	1	2-4	0-1
KJ Tenner G	10	2	0	0	1-3	0-0
Dylan Anderson F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tristian Ford, Lachlan Crate, Dillon Butler, Ben Shtolzberg

MCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javohn Garcia G	31	15	6	6	5-10	1-3
DJ Richards Jr. G	25	5	5	1	1-5	1-2
Jacolb Fredson-Cole F	22	4	6	2	2-10	0-5
Tyshawn Archie G	20	17	1	1	7-13	2-5
Jerrell Colbert F	19	3	2	0	1-5	0-2
Bench
Larry Johnson G	23	11	3	2	5-10	0-2
Garwey Dual G	21	7	4	3	3-8	0-0
Peitok Machar F	20	4	7	0	2-2	0-0
Carl Cherenfant G	19	7	1	1	3-7	1-4

Did not play: JJ Rembert, T'Johnn Brown, Erik Villarreal, Kaleb Brewer, Akim Mazou, Yanis Ndjonga

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MCN -2.5	MCN -2.8	MCN +0.3	W MCN covered
Total	158.5	161.1	Over 2.6	L Under
Projected score	—	MUR 79.2 · MCN 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MCN -1.5	MCN -23.0
1H total	75.4	57
1H projected score	MUR 37 · MCN 38.5	MUR 17 · MCN 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MUR WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-1	0-1
MCN LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MUR neutral site, as underdog; MCN neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MUR OOOOO	6-0	100%	4-2
MCN UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MURlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	6-0 100%
MCNlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Murray St

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-0

100% overs · avg +14.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-0100%

O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsOMA	W 85-77	-5.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMVSU	W 108-60	-38.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 11	@SMU	L 91-102	+10.5	L −0.5	164.5	O 193
Nov 15	vsNICH	W 99-79	-14.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 18	vsLR	W 89-68	-13.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 23	vsMTSU	L 87-90	-6.5	L −9.5	161.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+2.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+9.5

SMU

L 91-102

−0.5

NICH

W 99-79

+5.5

W 89-68

+7.5

MTSU

L 87-90

−9.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+8.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+8.5

SMU

L 91-102

+28.5

NICH

W 99-79

+20.5

W 89-68

+3.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+15.5

over 6under 0avg +14.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

McNeese

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +10.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

L W W

2 straight wins2 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SCU	L 67-79	+6.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 14	vsUL	W 88-62	-15.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 23	vsGW	W 92-86	+5.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 178

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+10.5

W 92-86

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+15.5

W 92-86

+20.5

over 2under 1avg +10.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Murray State Racers vs McNeese Cowboys

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Murray St

McNeese

Murray St

McNeese