LSU New Orleans Privateers at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 7:30 PM ETHumphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St

Final

Closing lineMSST -23.5✓ NOLA covered by 20.5

Closing total160.5Under by 1.5

Season records: LSU N Orleans and Mississippi St
NOLA	This season	MSST
2-3	Record	2-3
2-3	ATS	0-5
3-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NOLA 72–91 MSST · ✓ MSST (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
NOLA	34	34	10	78
MSST	28	40	13	81

1st half: NOLA 34, MSST 28 (NOLA by 6). The model had MSST by 11.7 and a total of 76.5 (actual 62).

Team stats

NOLA		MSST
26-69 38%	Field goals	28-65 43%
10-27 37%	3-pointers	10-31 32%
16-17 94%	Free throws	15-29 52%
44 15 off	Rebounds	42 15 off
17	Assists	15
8	Steals	10
5	Blocks	5
15	Turnovers	14
22	Fouls	19
20	Points in paint	26
8	Fast-break points	13

Players

NOLA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jakevion Buckley G	38	11	4	6	4-15	1-3
Coleton Benson G	36	25	4	2	7-14	7-12
MJ Thomas F	31	13	10	3	3-5	0-0
Panagiotis Pagonis F	29	7	2	3	3-11	1-6
Enzo Boudouma F	17	5	4	1	2-5	1-2
Bench
Churchill Abass F	33	13	10	1	5-8	0-0
TJ Cope G	20	2	4	0	1-5	0-0
Irish Coquia G	16	2	1	1	1-6	0-4
Kedrick Osby F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Mathok Majok, William Patterson Jr., Grant Kemp, Eze Nwakamma, Vieux Sanneh, Jamal Chretien II

MSST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Hubbard G	41	28	6	5	9-21	5-12
Ja'Borri McGhee G	38	16	2	5	5-11	2-4
Shawn Jones Jr. G	34	4	5	1	1-6	0-4
Quincy Ballard C	26	11	7	1	5-8	0-0
Achor Achor F	8	0	4	0	0-2	0-2
Bench
Jamarion Davis-Fleming F	31	3	8	1	1-1	0-0
Amier Ali F	22	16	5	1	6-9	3-6
Brandon Walker F	11	3	0	1	1-2	0-1
Dellquan Warren G	9	0	1	0	0-3	0-2
King Grace G	5	0	0	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Sergej Macura, Jayden Epps, Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Gai Chol

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MSST -23.5	MSST -19.6	NOLA +3.9	W NOLA covered
Total	160.5	163.2	Over 2.7	L Under
Projected score	—	NOLA 71.8 · MSST 91.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSST -11.7	NOLA -6.0
1H total	76.5	62
1H projected score	NOLA 32.4 · MSST 44.1	NOLA 34 · MSST 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NOLA WLWLL	2-3	40%	2-3	2-3
MSST LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-2	0-4

Venue/role: NOLA away, as underdog; MSST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NOLA OUUOO	3-2	60%	2-3
MSST UOUOO	3-2	60%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOLAlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
MSSTlast 5	2-3 40%	0-5 0%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LSU N Orleans

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +7.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TCU	W 78-74	+21.5	W +25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 10	@LSU	L 58-93	+19.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 14	@TULN	W 85-63	+11.5	W +33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 18	@PEPP	L 79-90	+5.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	@FRES	L 76-85	+6.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+25.5

LSU

L 58-93

−15.5

TULN

W 85-63

+33.5

PEPP

L 79-90

−5.5

FRES

L 76-85

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+2.5

LSU

L 58-93

−11.5

TULN

W 85-63

−5.5

PEPP

L 79-90

+11.5

FRES

L 76-85

+6.5

over 3under 2avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mississippi St

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −12.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +6.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsKSU	L 77-98	-2.5	L −23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

KSU

L 77-98

−23.5

UNM

L 78-80

−8.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −12.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

KSU

L 77-98

+10.5

UNM

L 78-80

+6.5

over 3under 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU N Orleans @ Mississippi St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

LSU N Orleans

Mississippi St

LSU N Orleans

Mississippi St