LSU New Orleans Privateers at Fresno State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 9:00 PM ETSave Mart Center · at Fresno St

Final

#174FRESFresno St85▲ winner

Closing lineFRES -6.5✓ FRES covered by 2.5

Closing total154.5Over by 6.5

Season records: LSU N Orleans and Fresno St
NOLA	This season	FRES
2-2	Record	3-2
2-2	ATS	3-2
2-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NOLA 75–80 FRES · ✓ FRES (67%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NOLA	37	39	76
FRES	41	44	85

1st half: NOLA 37, FRES 41 (FRES by 4). The model had FRES by 2.9 and a total of 72.5 (actual 78).

Team stats

NOLA		FRES
25-58 43%	Field goals	27-57 47%
6-25 24%	3-pointers	9-27 33%
20-31 65%	Free throws	22-28 79%
36 12 off	Rebounds	36 9 off
8	Assists	13
6	Steals	6
2	Blocks	1
18	Turnovers	15
21	Fouls	24
38	Points in paint	36
17	Fast-break points	14

Players

NOLA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jakevion Buckley G	35	25	14	2	9-16	3-6
MJ Thomas F	31	16	8	4	4-5	0-0
Panagiotis Pagonis F	30	4	5	1	1-4	0-1
Coleton Benson G	27	5	1	1	2-7	1-5
TJ Cope G	26	9	1	0	4-8	0-2
Bench
Enzo Boudouma F	24	9	2	0	3-10	0-6
Kedrick Osby F	13	2	1	0	0-2	0-1
Irish Coquia G	10	6	1	0	2-3	2-3
Jamal Chretien II G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Churchill Abass F	1	0	2	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Vieux Sanneh, Grant Kemp, Eze Nwakamma, William Patterson Jr., Mathok Majok

FRES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jake Heidbreder G	39	33	5	1	11-14	4-6
Zaon Collins G	34	14	10	7	3-7	1-3
DeShawn Gory F	29	11	3	2	3-9	2-6
Wilson Jacques C	23	5	6	1	2-4	0-0
Cameron Faas G	13	2	0	0	1-6	0-4
Bench
Gasper Kocevar C	22	9	3	0	3-5	0-0
DJ Stickman G	22	6	2	2	2-4	1-2
Jac Mani F	8	0	2	0	0-4	0-3
Bastien Rieber G	7	5	0	0	2-3	1-2
David Douglas Jr. G	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Makhan Diouf F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano, Matteo Porto, Troy Jenkins, Nathan Zulemie

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FRES -6.5	FRES -5.1	NOLA +1.4	L FRES covered
Total	154.5	154.8	Over 0.3	W Over
Projected score	—	NOLA 74.8 · FRES 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FRES -2.9	FRES -4.0
1H total	72.5	78
1H projected score	NOLA 34.8 · FRES 37.7	NOLA 37 · FRES 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NOLA WLWL	2-2	50%	2-2	2-2
FRES LWLWW	3-2	60%	3-2	1-2

Venue/role: NOLA away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NOLA OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2
FRES UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOLAlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
FRESlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LSU N Orleans

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +9.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TCU	W 78-74	+21.5	W +25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 10	@LSU	L 58-93	+19.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 14	@TULN	W 85-63	+11.5	W +33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 18	@PEPP	L 79-90	+5.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+25.5

LSU

L 58-93

−15.5

TULN

W 85-63

+33.5

PEPP

L 79-90

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+2.5

LSU

L 58-93

−11.5

TULN

W 85-63

−5.5

PEPP

L 79-90

+11.5

over 2under 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fresno St

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUPST	L 66-67	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsLBSU	W 82-62	-6.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	vsUCSD	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsUVU	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 18	vsSFA	W 80-78	+2.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−10.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+13.5

UCSD

L 73-78

−6.5

UVU

W 75-74

+5.5

SFA

W 80-78

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−31.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+1.5

UCSD

L 73-78

+2.5

UVU

W 75-74

−7.5

SFA

W 80-78

+11.5

over 3under 2avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU New Orleans Privateers at Fresno State Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

LSU N Orleans

Fresno St

LSU N Orleans

Fresno St