Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Purdue Boilermakers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 9:30 PM ETBaha Mar Convention Center · Neutral site

#12TTUTexas Tech AP #1556final

Final

#23PURPurdue AP #186▲ winner

Closing linePUR -3.5✓ PUR covered by 26.5

Closing total153.5Under by 11.5

Season records: Texas Tech and Purdue
TTU	This season	PUR
4-1	Record	5-0
1-4	ATS	1-4
3-2	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TTU 76–80 PUR · ✓ PUR (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TTU	26	30	56
PUR	49	37	86

1st half: TTU 26, PUR 49 (PUR by 23). The model had PUR by 2.6 and a total of 73.2 (actual 75).

Team stats

TTU		PUR
20-60 33%	Field goals	34-58 59%
8-34 24%	3-pointers	8-14 57%
8-14 57%	Free throws	10-15 67%
25 9 off	Rebounds	43 10 off
8	Assists	19
7	Steals	1
3	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	11
14	Fouls	15
24	Points in paint	38
4	Fast-break points	3

Players

TTU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Anderson G	37	13	2	1	5-15	3-10
JT Toppin F	36	15	8	2	6-13	0-3
Donovan Atwell G	22	9	1	0	3-9	3-9
Luke Bamgboye F	17	5	2	0	1-3	0-0
Tyeree Bryan G	16	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Bench
Jaylen Petty G	34	5	3	4	2-10	1-8
LeJuan Watts G	13	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Leon Horner G	11	5	5	0	2-6	0-0
Nolan Groves G	9	4	0	0	1-2	1-2
Marial Akuentok F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jack Francis G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: LaTrell Hoover, Jazz Henderson Jr., Josiah Moseley

PUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braden Smith G	28	10	1	7	4-7	2-2
C.J. Cox G	25	10	3	1	4-8	2-3
Fletcher Loyer G	24	10	2	2	3-8	2-5
Oscar Cluff C	21	15	15	1	6-8	0-0
Trey Kaufman-Renn F	20	12	6	0	6-9	0-0
Bench
Omer Mayer G	20	11	0	2	5-8	1-3
Daniel Jacobsen C	19	11	8	2	4-4	1-1
Jack Benter G	18	4	5	1	1-1	0-0
Gicarri Harris G	17	2	0	2	1-4	0-0
Aaron Fine G	4	1	0	1	0-1	0-0
Jace Rayl G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jack Lusk G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Raleigh Burgess, Liam Murphy, Antione West Jr, Sam King

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PUR -3.5	PUR -4.6	PUR +1.1	W PUR covered
Total	153.5	156.2	Over 2.7	L Under
Projected score	—	TTU 75.8 · PUR 80.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PUR -2.6	PUR -23.0
1H total	73.2	75
1H projected score	TTU 35.3 · PUR 37.9	TTU 26 · PUR 49

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TTU WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	0-1
PUR LLWLL	1-4	20%	0-1	0-4

Venue/role: TTU neutral site, as underdog; PUR neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU OOUUO	3-2	60%	4-1
PUR UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTUlast 5	4-1 80%	1-4 20%	3-2 60%
PURlast 5	5-0 100%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas Tech

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLIN	W 98-60	-29.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 7	vsSHSU	W 98-77	-31.5	L −10.5	156.5	O 175
Nov 11	@ILL	L 77-81	+3.5	L −0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsMILW	W 80-63	-27.5	L −10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsWAKE	W 84-83	-9.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIN

W 98-60

+8.5

SHSU

W 98-77

−10.5

ILL

L 77-81

−0.5

MILW

W 80-63

−10.5

WAKE

W 84-83

−8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIN

W 98-60

+11.5

SHSU

W 98-77

+18.5

ILL

L 77-81

−10.5

MILW

W 80-63

−22.5

WAKE

W 84-83

+6.5

over 3under 2avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Purdue

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEVAN	W 82-51	-33.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsOAK	W 87-77	-31.5	L −21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 13	@ALA	W 87-80	+3.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 16	vsAKR	W 97-79	-18.5	L −0.5	163.5	O 176
Nov 20	vsMEM	W 80-71	-14.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−2.5

OAK

W 87-77

−21.5

ALA

W 87-80

+10.5

AKR

W 97-79

−0.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−17.5

OAK

W 87-77

+5.5

ALA

W 87-80

−5.5

AKR

W 97-79

+12.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

over 2under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Purdue Boilermakers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas Tech

Purdue

Texas Tech

Purdue