Memphis Tigers vs Purdue Boilermakers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 6:00 PM ETBaha Mar Convention Center · Neutral site

#76MEMMemphis71final

Final

#23PURPurdue AP #180▲ winner

Closing linePUR -14.5✓ MEM covered by 5.5

Closing total156.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Memphis and Purdue
MEM	This season	PUR
1-2	Record	4-0
2-1	ATS	1-3
2-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MEM 69–89 PUR · ✓ PUR (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MEM	35	36	71
PUR	36	44	80

1st half: MEM 35, PUR 36 (PUR by 1). The model had PUR by 11.6 and a total of 74.2 (actual 71).

Team stats

MEM		PUR
25-59 42%	Field goals	30-65 46%
4-19 21%	3-pointers	11-30 37%
17-25 68%	Free throws	9-11 82%
34 15 off	Rebounds	37 14 off
9	Assists	20
5	Steals	6
4	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	11
13	Fouls	21
38	Points in paint	38
22	Fast-break points	14

Players

MEM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dug McDaniel G	30	18	6	6	7-15	1-4
Simon Majok C	28	5	7	0	2-5	0-1
Zach Davis G	28	11	2	3	2-5	1-4
Ashton Hardaway F	25	7	2	0	3-6	1-3
Aaron Bradshaw F	9	7	0	0	3-4	1-1
Bench
Tariq Ingraham F	20	10	3	0	3-7	0-2
Sincere Parker G	18	10	5	0	4-11	0-1
Julius Thedford G	17	3	5	0	1-2	0-0
Curtis Givens III G	12	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Quante Berry G	7	0	2	0	0-2	0-2
William Whorton F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Arop Arop, Mason Matthews, Hasan Abdul Hakim, Thierno Sylla

PUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braden Smith G	37	5	3	12	2-14	1-6
Oscar Cluff C	35	11	7	2	3-3	0-0
Fletcher Loyer G	32	20	4	0	6-14	4-10
C.J. Cox G	30	18	4	1	7-10	4-7
Trey Kaufman-Renn F	27	12	11	3	6-9	0-0
Bench
Jack Benter G	13	2	4	1	1-2	0-1
Omer Mayer G	12	6	1	0	2-9	2-6
Gicarri Harris G	9	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Daniel Jacobsen C	5	6	1	0	3-3	0-0

Did not play: Jack Lusk, Aaron Fine, Sam King, Liam Murphy, Jace Rayl, Antione West Jr, Raleigh Burgess

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PUR -14.5	PUR -19.4	PUR +4.9	L MEM covered
Total	156.5	158.3	Over 1.8	L Under
Projected score	—	MEM 69.4 · PUR 88.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PUR -11.6	PUR -1.0
1H total	74.2	71
1H projected score	MEM 31.3 · PUR 42.9	MEM 35 · PUR 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MEM WWL	2-1	67%	—	1-0
PUR LLWL	1-3	25%	—	0-3

Venue/role: MEM neutral site, as underdog; PUR neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOO	2-1	67%	1-2
PUR UOUO	2-2	50%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
PURlast 4	4-0 100%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Memphis

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSF	W 76-70	-2.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 11	@MISS	L 77-83	+9.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 16	vsUNLV	L 78-92	-9.5	L −23.5	163.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-70

+3.5

MISS

L 77-83

+3.5

UNLV

L 78-92

−23.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-70

−11.5

MISS

L 77-83

+7.5

UNLV

L 78-92

+6.5

over 2under 1avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Purdue

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEVAN	W 82-51	-33.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsOAK	W 87-77	-31.5	L −21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 13	@ALA	W 87-80	+3.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 16	vsAKR	W 97-79	-18.5	L −0.5	163.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−2.5

OAK

W 87-77

−21.5

ALA

W 87-80

+10.5

AKR

W 97-79

−0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−17.5

OAK

W 87-77

+5.5

ALA

W 87-80

−5.5

AKR

W 97-79

+12.5

over 2under 2avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Memphis Tigers vs Purdue Boilermakers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Memphis

Purdue

Memphis

Purdue