Georgia Bulldogs vs Xavier Musketeers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 9:00 PM ETTD Arena · Neutral site

#34UGAGeorgia78▲ winner

Final

#49XAVXavier77final

Closing lineUGA -10.5✓ XAV covered by 9.5

Closing total165.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Georgia and Xavier
UGA	This season	XAV
5-0	Record	3-2
3-2	ATS	1-4
3-2	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UGA 87–74 XAV · ✓ UGA (87%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UGA	53	25	78
XAV	41	36	77

1st half: UGA 53, XAV 41 (UGA by 12). The model had UGA by 7.9 and a total of 75.1 (actual 94).

Team stats

UGA		XAV
29-64 45%	Field goals	27-70 39%
7-28 25%	3-pointers	11-32 34%
13-18 72%	Free throws	12-19 63%
43 10 off	Rebounds	42 15 off
11	Assists	10
4	Steals	9
9	Blocks	0
11	Turnovers	8
15	Fouls	15
40	Points in paint	30
15	Fast-break points	8

Players

UGA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Blue Cain G	29	16	6	1	6-14	1-7
Jordan Ross G	23	6	3	3	2-3	0-0
Jeremiah Wilkinson G	18	8	6	0	3-8	1-2
Kanon Catchings F	17	3	3	2	1-9	1-6
Somto Cyril C	16	6	1	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Marcus Millender G	23	12	4	2	5-8	2-5
Dylan James F	21	10	7	1	5-8	0-1
Justin Abson F	18	2	3	0	1-1	0-0
Justin Bailey G	17	6	2	1	2-6	2-6
Jake Wilkins F	10	5	2	0	2-3	0-1
Kareem Stagg F	8	4	3	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Markel Jennings, Jackson McVey, Jaden Newell, Brandon Klatsky

XAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jovan Milicevic F	34	19	5	0	7-14	5-9
Malik Messina-Moore G	34	6	6	3	1-8	1-4
Tre Carroll F	34	19	10	1	6-12	1-5
All Wright G	34	17	2	0	5-16	4-9
Filip Borovicanin F	33	12	12	4	6-9	0-2
Bench
Roddie Anderson G	19	4	2	2	2-10	0-3
Isaiah Walker G	7	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Pape N'Diaye F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Anthony Robinson F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Gabriel Pozzato, Luke Naser, Henry Thole, Kason Westphal, Mier Panoam, Ian Sabourin, Michael Wolf

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UGA -10.5	UGA -12.8	UGA +2.3	L XAV covered
Total	165.5	160.3	Under 5.2	W Under
Projected score	—	UGA 86.5 · XAV 73.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UGA -7.9	UGA -12.0
1H total	75.1	94
1H projected score	UGA 41.5 · XAV 33.6	UGA 53 · XAV 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UGA WWWLL	3-2	60%	—	3-2
XAV LLLLW	1-4	20%	—	0-1

Venue/role: UGA neutral site, as favorite; XAV neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA OUOOU	3-2	60%	5-0
XAV UUUUO	1-4	20%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGAlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
XAVlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UGA 1–0 XAVUGA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UGA 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2023-24	XAV 76 @ UGA 78	UGA -1.5	UGA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBELL	W 104-59	-23.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 5	vsUMES	W 94-29	-33.5	W +31.5	142.5	U 123
Nov 9	vsMORE	W 120-81	-28.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 201
Nov 14	vsGT	W 92-87	-15.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsFAMU	W 87-57	-40.5	L −10.5	170.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BELL

W 104-59

+21.5

UMES

W 94-29

+31.5

W 120-81

+10.5

W 92-87

−10.5

FAMU

W 87-57

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BELL

W 104-59

+12.5

UMES

W 94-29

−19.5

W 120-81

+50.5

W 92-87

+23.5

FAMU

W 87-57

−26.5

over 3under 2avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Xavier

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −6.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsODU	W 99-69	-10.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

ODU

W 99-69

+19.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

ODU

W 99-69

+17.5

over 1under 4avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia Bulldogs vs Xavier Musketeers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia

Xavier

Georgia

Xavier