Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Georgia Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 9:00 PM ETStegeman Coliseum · at Georgia

Final

#34UGAGeorgia92▲ winner

Closing lineUGA -15.5✓ GT covered by 10.5

Closing total155.5Over by 23.5

Season records: Georgia Tech and Georgia
GT	This season	UGA
3-0	Record	3-0
1-2	ATS	3-0
0-3	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GT 66–84 UGA · ✓ UGA (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GT	45	42	87
UGA	46	46	92

1st half: GT 45, UGA 46 (UGA by 1). The model had UGA by 10.7 and a total of 69.9 (actual 91).

Team stats

GT		UGA
30-73 41%	Field goals	27-67 40%
10-22 45%	3-pointers	6-29 21%
17-28 61%	Free throws	32-44 73%
43 18 off	Rebounds	49 18 off
18	Assists	14
7	Steals	7
8	Blocks	8
15	Turnovers	14
28	Fouls	24
36	Points in paint	40
6	Fast-break points	30

Players

GT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kam Craft G	34	17	5	2	6-10	5-7
Jaeden Mustaf G	31	15	5	6	6-12	0-1
Kowacie Reeves Jr. F	28	12	4	0	3-12	2-5
Mouhamed Sylla C	24	7	8	0	2-9	0-1
Baye Ndongo F	20	10	4	1	4-6	0-0
Bench
Lamar Washington G	30	16	5	5	6-15	1-4
Peyton Marshall C	16	2	5	1	0-3	0-0
Akai Fleming G	13	8	2	2	3-4	2-3
Chas Kelley III G	4	0	2	1	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Davi Remagen, Eric Chatfield Jr., Dyllan Thompson, Cole Kirouac, Brandon Stores Jr.

UGA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Blue Cain G	24	18	5	2	5-10	2-5
Jordan Ross G	22	14	5	3	5-7	1-2
Somto Cyril C	22	8	6	0	3-4	0-0
Kanon Catchings F	18	6	5	1	2-10	0-6
Justin Bailey G	15	2	6	0	1-5	0-3
Bench
Marcus Millender G	25	7	5	5	1-9	1-5
Jeremiah Wilkinson G	24	18	3	0	5-11	2-5
Dylan James F	14	4	3	0	1-4	0-2
Kareem Stagg F	13	2	1	3	1-2	0-0
Justin Abson F	12	7	2	0	2-2	0-0
Jake Wilkins F	11	6	4	0	1-3	0-1

Did not play: Markel Jennings, Jackson McVey, Jaden Newell, Brandon Klatsky

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UGA -15.5	UGA -18.0	UGA +2.5	L GT covered
Total	155.5	149.2	Under 6.3	L Over
Projected score	—	GT 65.6 · UGA 83.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UGA -10.7	UGA -1.0
1H total	69.9	91
1H projected score	GT 29.6 · UGA 40.3	GT 45 · UGA 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT LWL	1-2	33%	—	—
UGA WWW	3-0	100%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: GT away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT UUU	0-3	0%	3-0
UGA OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GTlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%
UGAlast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GT 2–2 UGASeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · UGA has won the last 2 meetings · GT 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2024-25	UGA 77 @ GT 69	GT +1.5	UGA W
Dec 5, 2023-24	GT 62 @ UGA 76	UGA -5.5	UGA W
Dec 6, 2022-23	UGA 77 @ GT 79	GT -4.5	UGA W
Nov 19, 2021-22	GT 88 @ UGA 78	UGA +3.5	GT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia Tech

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −18.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUMES	W 56-52	-28.5	L −24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 7	vsBRY	W 74-45	-15.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsSELA	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−24.5

BRY

W 74-45

+13.5

SELA

W 70-60

−4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−31.5

BRY

W 74-45

−19.5

SELA

W 70-60

−3.5

over 0under 3avg −18.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +21.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +14.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBELL	W 104-59	-23.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 5	vsUMES	W 94-29	-33.5	W +31.5	142.5	U 123
Nov 9	vsMORE	W 120-81	-28.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 201

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BELL

W 104-59

+21.5

UMES

W 94-29

+31.5

W 120-81

+10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +21.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BELL

W 104-59

+12.5

UMES

W 94-29

−19.5

W 120-81

+50.5

over 2under 1avg +14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Georgia Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia Tech

Georgia

Georgia Tech

Georgia