Cal Poly Mustangs at Montana Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 9:00 PM ETDahlberg Arena · at Montana

#164CPCal Poly82final

Final

#273MONTMontana90▲ winner

Closing lineMONT -7.5✓ MONT covered by 0.5

Closing total168.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Cal Poly and Montana
CP	This season	MONT
1-2	Record	1-1
2-1	ATS	1-1
1-2	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CP 81–85 MONT · ✓ MONT (63%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CP	26	56	82
MONT	37	53	90

1st half: CP 26, MONT 37 (MONT by 11). The model had MONT by 2.1 and a total of 77.4 (actual 63).

Team stats

CP		MONT
30-69 43%	Field goals	29-64 45%
7-20 35%	3-pointers	9-30 30%
15-21 71%	Free throws	23-29 79%
43 12 off	Rebounds	38 9 off
10	Assists	17
6	Steals	5
2	Blocks	5
14	Turnovers	12
25	Fouls	17
46	Points in paint	40
3	Fast-break points	16

Players

CP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jake Davis G	34	14	6	1	6-12	1-3
Peter Bandelj G	34	21	0	2	5-13	2-3
Kieran Elliott G	27	9	3	3	3-6	1-2
Cayden Ward G	25	15	6	0	7-13	1-4
Troy Plumtree F	21	6	4	2	3-7	0-2
Bench
Ali Assran F	18	2	12	1	1-6	0-2
Guzman Vasilic G	16	3	2	0	1-4	1-3
Jason Scott G	10	1	2	1	0-2	0-0
Aaron Price Jr. PF	8	3	1	0	1-2	0-0
Austin Goode F	7	8	1	0	3-4	1-1

Did not play: Braden Freeman, Jess Esso Essis, Hamad Mousa, Eric Brown, Luka Tarlac, Jackson Mosley

MONT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Isaak G	37	19	7	3	5-11	2-5
Te'Jon Sawyer F	29	4	4	0	1-6	0-1
Money Williams G	29	31	4	6	11-18	4-8
Kenyon Aguino F	23	6	3	4	2-4	0-1
Tyler Thompson G	22	3	6	0	1-6	1-6
Bench
Brooklyn Hicks G	32	14	4	2	5-11	1-5
Chase Henderson G	12	6	3	1	2-3	0-0
Courtney Anderson Jr. G	9	3	2	1	1-3	1-3
Connor Dick G	7	4	0	0	1-2	0-1

Did not play: Kadyn Betts, Luke Moxon, Grant Kepley, Trae Taylor, Amari Jedkins

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MONT -7.5	MONT -3.8	CP +3.7	L MONT covered
Total	168.5	165.3	Under 3.2	L Over
Projected score	—	CP 80.7 · MONT 84.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MONT -2.1	MONT -11.0
1H total	77.4	63
1H projected score	CP 37.6 · MONT 39.8	CP 26 · MONT 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CP LWW	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1
MONT LW	1-1	50%	—	—

Venue/role: CP away, as underdog; MONT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CP UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
MONT OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CPlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
MONTlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cal Poly

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USC	L 64-94	+24.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 8	@SEA	W 73-71	+10.5	W +12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	@CSU	L 79-93	+18.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

+12.5

CSU

L 79-93

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

−20.5

CSU

L 79-93

+6.5

over 1under 2avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Montana

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +23 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@STAN	L 68-91	+12.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 11	@UNLV	W 102-93	+10.5	W +19.5	157.5	O 195

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STAN

L 68-91

−10.5

UNLV

W 102-93

+19.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STAN

L 68-91

+8.5

UNLV

W 102-93

+37.5

over 2under 0avg +23 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cal Poly Mustangs at Montana Grizzlies

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Cal Poly

Montana

Cal Poly

Montana