Arkansas State Red Wolves at SMU Mustangs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 9:00 PM ETMoody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU

Final

#55SMUSMU100▲ winner

Closing lineSMU -14.5✓ SMU covered by 16.5

Closing total172.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Arkansas St and SMU
ARST	This season	SMU
2-2	Record	5-0
3-1	ATS	2-3
3-1	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ARST 77–91 SMU · ✓ SMU (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ARST	30	39	69
SMU	50	50	100

1st half: ARST 30, SMU 50 (SMU by 20). The model had SMU by 8.4 and a total of 78.6 (actual 80).

Team stats

ARST		SMU
26-63 41%	Field goals	41-75 55%
6-29 21%	3-pointers	8-23 35%
11-16 69%	Free throws	10-16 63%
48 21 off	Rebounds	30 12 off
6	Assists	29
4	Steals	26
2	Blocks	4
32	Turnovers	8
16	Fouls	15
36	Points in paint	50
2	Fast-break points	34

Players

ARST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
T.J. Caldwell G	30	20	4	1	8-16	0-6
Jaxon Ellingsworth F	27	5	8	1	2-7	1-4
Christian Harmon G	25	16	2	0	6-9	2-5
Chandler Jackson G	19	4	3	1	2-6	0-2
Aly Tounkara F	15	2	4	1	1-1	0-0
Bench
Chudi Dioramma F	20	5	5	0	1-4	0-0
Matt Hayman G	18	7	3	1	3-9	1-5
Royal Blue Smith G	17	8	2	1	3-5	2-4
Jalen Hampton G	16	2	9	0	0-2	0-1
Fredy-Salam Sylla G	13	0	4	0	0-4	0-2

Did not play: Joey Chammaa, Grayson Bennett, CJ Geathers, Weston Honeycutt, Tim Matthews

SMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
B.J. Edwards G	34	24	5	13	9-13	3-6
Corey Washington F	31	13	6	1	5-8	2-3
Boopie Miller G	30	17	0	6	6-13	2-6
Jaron Pierre Jr. G	28	15	4	3	6-16	0-6
Samet Yigitoglu C	25	14	5	1	7-10	0-0
Bench
Jermaine O'Neal Jr. F	19	11	3	1	5-9	1-2
Mitchell Holmes F	16	2	2	2	1-3	0-0
B.J. Davis-Ray G	11	4	1	2	2-3	0-0
Nigel Walls F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Chance Puryear G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Niccolo Kalischer-Stork, Trey Utter, Billy White III, Jaden Toombs, Sam Walters

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SMU -14.5	SMU -14.2	ARST +0.3	L SMU covered
Total	172.5	167.8	Under 4.7	W Under
Projected score	—	ARST 76.8 · SMU 91

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMU -8.4	SMU -20.0
1H total	78.6	80
1H projected score	ARST 35.1 · SMU 43.5	ARST 30 · SMU 50

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST WLWW	3-1	75%	3-1	3-0
SMU LLWLW	2-3	40%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2
SMU OUOOU	3-2	60%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARSTlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%
SMUlast 5	5-0 100%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Arkansas St

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +10 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OHIO	W 89-85	+3.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 7	@SFA	L 65-90	-1.5	L −26.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 11	@MOST	W 86-85	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 19	@SMC	L 72-85	+20.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+7.5

SFA

L 65-90

−26.5

MOST

W 86-85

+2.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

W 89-85

+14.5

SFA

L 65-90

−0.5

MOST

W 86-85

+18.5

SMC

L 72-85

+7.5

over 3under 1avg +10 ptslonger = bigger margin

SMU

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +5.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTAR	W 96-76	-21.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 172
Nov 6	vsAMCC	W 69-58	-23.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 127
Nov 11	vsMUR	W 102-91	-10.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 193
Nov 15	vsBTLR	W 87-85	-7.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUAPB	W 106-60	-35.5	W +10.5	168.5	U 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-76

−1.5

AMCC

W 69-58

−12.5

MUR

W 102-91

+0.5

BTLR

W 87-85

−5.5

UAPB

W 106-60

+10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-76

+27.5

AMCC

W 69-58

−33.5

MUR

W 102-91

+28.5

BTLR

W 87-85

+8.5

UAPB

W 106-60

−2.5

over 3under 2avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at SMU Mustangs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Arkansas St

SMU

Arkansas St

SMU