UC Davis Aggies at Colorado Buffaloes: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 9:00 PM ETCU Events Center · at Colorado

#182UCDUC Davis79final

Final

#65COLOColorado95▲ winner

Closing lineCOLO -14.5✓ COLO covered by 1.5

Closing total152.5Over by 21.5

Season records: UC Davis and Colorado
UCD	This season	COLO
3-1	Record	4-0
2-2	ATS	2-2
2-2	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UCD 70–84 COLO · ✓ COLO (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UCD	39	40	79
COLO	43	52	95

1st half: UCD 39, COLO 43 (COLO by 4). The model had COLO by 8.3 and a total of 72.3 (actual 82).

Team stats

UCD		COLO
31-60 52%	Field goals	34-57 60%
8-24 33%	3-pointers	9-15 60%
9-9 100%	Free throws	18-21 86%
26 7 off	Rebounds	29 7 off
16	Assists	24
5	Steals	8
3	Blocks	5
12	Turnovers	10
19	Fouls	12
42	Points in paint	44
9	Fast-break points	22

Players

UCD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nils Cooper G	32	14	9	1	6-8	0-2
Marcus Wilson G	31	21	2	2	8-15	3-5
Connor Sevilla G	29	2	0	2	1-7	0-4
Niko Rocak F	28	19	6	2	6-7	2-3
Omer Suljanovic F	17	5	2	1	2-6	1-3
Bench
Isaiah Chappell F	26	7	4	0	3-8	1-5
Brayden Fagbemi G	23	7	0	6	3-4	1-1
Jalen Stokes G	11	2	0	2	1-4	0-1
Chase Rawlins G	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Abdullah Amzil F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cyril Franklin Jr., Ylan Esso-Essis, Jonathan Noudjihidi, Carl Daughtery Jr.

COLO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Barrington Hargress G	32	13	1	9	5-7	1-3
Sebastian Rancik F	31	15	7	5	5-9	1-2
Bangot Dak F	30	18	5	3	8-10	0-0
Felix Kossaras G	24	17	2	0	5-7	3-5
Elijah Malone C	15	3	4	2	1-2	1-1
Bench
Isaiah Johnson G	22	8	3	1	2-4	2-2
Alon Michaeli F	18	10	2	1	4-9	0-1
Josiah Sanders G	15	6	2	1	3-6	0-0
Jalin Holland G	9	5	1	2	1-3	1-1
Ian Inman G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Andrew Crawford F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tacko Ifaola C	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jon Mani, Nick Randall, Leonardo Van Elswyk

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLO -14.5	COLO -14.0	UCD +0.5	L COLO covered
Total	152.5	154.4	Over 1.9	W Over
Projected score	—	UCD 70.2 · COLO 84.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLO -8.3	COLO -4.0
1H total	72.3	82
1H projected score	UCD 32 · COLO 40.3	UCD 39 · COLO 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCD WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
COLO LLWW	2-2	50%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: UCD away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCD OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1
COLO OOOO	4-0	100%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCDlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
COLOlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC Davis

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsNDSU	W 80-68	-1.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	@PORT	L 63-67	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsSAC	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 18	@NEV	W 75-71	+12.5	W +16.5	143.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+10.5

PORT

L 63-67

−2.5

SAC

W 77-73

−0.5

NEV

W 75-71

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+5.5

PORT

L 63-67

−21.5

SAC

W 77-73

−1.5

NEV

W 75-71

+2.5

over 2under 2avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +21.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMTST	W 84-78	-11.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Nov 8	vsEWU	W 102-97	-16.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 199
Nov 14	vsPROV	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 17	vsALST	W 94-66	-22.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

−5.5

EWU

W 102-97

−11.5

PROV

W 97-88

+7.5

ALST

W 94-66

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

+13.5

EWU

W 102-97

+46.5

PROV

W 97-88

+21.5

ALST

W 94-66

+3.5

over 4under 0avg +21.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC Davis Aggies at Colorado Buffaloes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UC Davis

Colorado

UC Davis

Colorado