Samford Bulldogs at New Mexico State Aggies: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 9:00 PM ETPan American Center · at New Mexico St

#184SAMSamford72final

Final

#133NMSUNew Mexico St81▲ winner

Closing lineNMSU -8.5✓ NMSU covered by 0.5

Closing total145.5Over by 7.5

Season records: Samford and New Mexico St
SAM	This season	NMSU
3-3	Record	1-0
3-3	ATS	1-0
3-3	O/U	1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SAM 72–81 NMSU · ✓ NMSU (78%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SAM	32	40	72
NMSU	40	41	81

1st half: SAM 32, NMSU 40 (NMSU by 8). The model had NMSU by 5.2 and a total of 71.6 (actual 72).

Team stats

SAM		NMSU
24-60 40%	Field goals	31-57 54%
8-30 27%	3-pointers	7-16 44%
16-21 76%	Free throws	12-16 75%
29 10 off	Rebounds	37 9 off
9	Assists	16
4	Steals	1
2	Blocks	2
3	Turnovers	6
16	Fouls	19
24	Points in paint	46
7	Fast-break points	9

Players

SAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jadin Booth G	33	3	2	0	1-8	1-5
Cade Norris G	27	8	3	1	3-7	1-3
Zion Wilburn G	25	15	3	0	4-7	1-3
Dylan Faulkner F	22	5	4	3	2-5	0-0
Keaton Norris G	14	5	0	2	2-5	1-4
Bench
Kam Martin G	22	17	5	0	7-12	3-6
Jaxon Pollard F	20	9	5	1	2-6	1-4
Isaiah Campbell-Finch G	19	8	2	2	2-6	0-4
Judson Bjornstad F	11	0	1	0	0-3	0-1
Will Shaver C	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Caleb Harrison F	2	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: JD Gossett, DaJion Humphrey, Cooper Davenport, Corey Brown, Zach Lamey, Joshua Hughes

NMSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Anthony Wrzeszcz G	30	7	1	2	2-4	2-4
Gabe Pickens G	27	3	7	8	0-4	0-0
Julius Mims F	27	17	11	1	7-7	2-2
Jemel Jones G	20	10	3	0	4-12	0-2
Cyr Malonga C	8	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Jayland Randall G	19	10	3	0	3-5	2-4
Jae'Coby Osborne F	17	4	2	2	2-5	0-0
Elijah Elliott G	17	8	0	1	2-4	1-3
Augustine Ekwe C	14	8	2	1	4-6	0-0
Kyrese Mullen F	11	10	3	1	5-8	0-1
Chris Terrell G	10	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Omarr Smith, Amarco Doyle, Teysean Eaglestaff, Christian Villegas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NMSU -8.5	NMSU -8.8	NMSU +0.3	W NMSU covered
Total	145.5	152.8	Over 7.3	W Over
Projected score	—	SAM 72 · NMSU 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NMSU -5.2	NMSU -8.0
1H total	71.6	72
1H projected score	SAM 33.2 · NMSU 38.4	SAM 32 · NMSU 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAM LWWWL	3-3	50%	3-1	1-1
NMSU W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: SAM away, as underdog; NMSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAM UOUOU	3-3	50%	3-3
NMSU O	1-0	100%	1-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAMlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
NMSUlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Samford

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TULN	L 72-85	+7.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsSCST	W 82-72	-14.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 12	@TXSO	W 93-90	-2.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 14	@ARK	L 75-79	+24.5	W +20.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 16	@CARK	W 84-77	-6.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 161
Nov 19	vsFGCU	L 62-77	-5.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

−5.5

SCST

W 82-72

−4.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+0.5

ARK

L 75-79

+20.5

CARK

W 84-77

+0.5

FGCU

L 62-77

−20.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

+2.5

SCST

W 82-72

−0.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+29.5

ARK

L 75-79

−4.5

CARK

W 84-77

+9.5

FGCU

L 62-77

−15.5

over 3under 3avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Mexico St

1 game played

Straight up

1-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-0

100% covers · avg +11.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-0

100% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-0100%

1 of 1 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-0100%

1 of 1 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-0100%

1 of 1 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	vsUNM	W 76-68	+3.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

W 76-68

+11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 0avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

W 76-68

+4.5

over 1under 0avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Samford Bulldogs at New Mexico State Aggies

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Samford

New Mexico St

Samford

New Mexico St