Northwestern State Demons at Grand Canyon Lopes: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 9:00 PM ETGlobal Credit Union Arena · at Grand Canyon

Final

#80GCUGrand Canyon85▲ winner

Closing lineGCU -18.5✓ NWST covered by 5.5

Closing total147.5Over by 9.5

Season records: N'Western St and Grand Canyon
NWST	This season	GCU
0-4	Record	2-2
1-3	ATS	2-2
3-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NWST 67–84 GCU · ✓ GCU (93%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NWST	31	41	72
GCU	41	44	85

1st half: NWST 31, GCU 41 (GCU by 10). The model had GCU by 9.9 and a total of 70.5 (actual 72).

Team stats

NWST		GCU
25-52 48%	Field goals	24-49 49%
6-20 30%	3-pointers	7-22 32%
16-24 67%	Free throws	30-39 77%
17 3 off	Rebounds	41 12 off
12	Assists	15
4	Steals	3
3	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	12
27	Fouls	23
22	Points in paint	28
6	Fast-break points	13

Players

NWST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Micah Thomas G	32	24	3	4	9-18	1-5
Landyn Jumawan G	31	14	2	3	4-8	3-6
J.C. Riley Jr. F	28	7	2	2	3-5	0-0
Kordrick Turner F	24	10	2	1	3-4	0-0
Izzy Miles G	11	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Bench
Omar Adegbola G	18	8	0	0	3-7	2-4
Chris Mubiru G	15	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Chip Brunt G	15	3	1	1	1-2	0-0
Justin Redmond G	14	2	3	0	0-3	0-2
Moustapha Loum F	12	2	3	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Willie Williams, Seth Ned, CJ Larry, Quentin Bolton

GCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaden Henley G	25	22	3	4	5-11	0-3
Brian Moore Jr. G	25	9	5	1	2-5	0-0
Nana Owusu-Anane F	24	8	12	1	3-6	1-3
Wilhelm Breidenbach F	18	1	2	1	0-0	0-0
Makaih Williams G	18	12	0	2	5-9	2-6
Bench
Dusty Stromer G	32	10	6	2	2-7	2-5
Efe Demirel C	22	11	2	1	3-3	0-0
Caleb Shaw G	18	8	5	2	3-5	1-3
Kaleb Smith F	17	4	4	1	1-3	1-2
Evan Boisdur G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dennis Evans, Cole Pepe, Luke Shaw, Braylon Johnson, Jack Sawyer

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GCU -18.5	GCU -16.7	NWST +1.8	W NWST covered
Total	147.5	150.4	Over 2.9	W Over
Projected score	—	NWST 66.8 · GCU 83.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GCU -9.9	GCU -10.0
1H total	70.5	72
1H projected score	NWST 30.3 · GCU 40.2	NWST 31 · GCU 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NWST LLWL	1-3	25%	1-3	1-3
GCU WLWL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: NWST away, as underdog; GCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NWST OUOO	3-1	75%	0-4
GCU OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NWSTlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%
GCUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N'Western St

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +10 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TA&M	L 68-98	+21.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 166
Nov 6	@UNT	L 53-80	+11.5	L −15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 11	@UNA	L 83-87	+6.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 18	@SF	L 64-84	+16.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

−8.5

UNT

L 53-80

−15.5

UNA

L 83-87

+2.5

L 64-84

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

+12.5

UNT

L 53-80

−4.5

UNA

L 83-87

+27.5

L 64-84

+4.5

over 3under 1avg +10 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grand Canyon

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsPFW	W 90-71	-14.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 161
Nov 7	vsYSU	L 81-90	-15.5	L −24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 10	vsNIU	W 88-59	-22.5	W +6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 15	@SLU	L 64-78	+8.5	L −5.5	167.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PFW

W 90-71

+4.5

YSU

L 81-90

−24.5

NIU

W 88-59

+6.5

SLU

L 64-78

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PFW

W 90-71

+5.5

YSU

L 81-90

+18.5

NIU

W 88-59

−16.5

SLU

L 64-78

−25.5

over 2under 2avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northwestern State Demons at Grand Canyon Lopes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N'Western St

Grand Canyon

N'Western St

Grand Canyon