Mississippi State Bulldogs vs New Mexico Lobos: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ETT-Mobile Center · Neutral site

Final

#82UNMNew Mexico80▲ winner

Closing lineMSST -6.5✓ UNM covered by 8.5

Closing total151.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Mississippi St and New Mexico
MSST	This season	UNM
2-2	Record	3-2
0-4	ATS	1-4
2-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MSST 81–76 UNM · ✗ MSST (65%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MSST	39	39	78
UNM	40	40	80

1st half: MSST 39, UNM 40 (UNM by 1). The model had MSST by 2.9 and a total of 73.6 (actual 79).

Team stats

MSST		UNM
31-68 46%	Field goals	26-63 41%
9-29 31%	3-pointers	9-27 33%
7-13 54%	Free throws	19-25 76%
36 8 off	Rebounds	46 13 off
13	Assists	11
6	Steals	2
4	Blocks	0
7	Turnovers	10
21	Fouls	17
36	Points in paint	32
4	Fast-break points	8

Players

MSST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Hubbard G	36	29	2	4	11-25	6-13
Jayden Epps G	34	21	2	6	8-17	2-6
Shawn Jones Jr. G	25	2	3	1	0-4	0-2
Quincy Ballard C	19	6	6	0	3-5	0-0
Achor Achor F	14	0	5	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
Jamarion Davis-Fleming F	21	6	6	0	3-3	0-0
Amier Ali F	18	2	8	0	1-7	0-5
Brandon Walker F	16	8	3	1	3-3	1-1
Ja'Borri McGhee G	8	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
King Grace G	7	2	0	0	1-2	0-1
Dellquan Warren G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Gai Chol, Sergej Macura, Cameren Paul, Tee Bartlett

UNM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Uriah Tenette G	30	13	5	3	3-8	2-4
Tomislav Buljan F	29	19	21	1	6-11	1-2
Antonio Chol F	29	12	5	0	5-11	2-5
Chris Howell G	25	6	2	3	1-4	0-1
Jake Hall G	24	6	1	1	2-6	2-6
Bench
Deyton Albury G	23	13	1	0	5-9	1-2
Luke Haupt G	22	5	6	3	1-3	1-3
JT Rock C	11	4	2	0	2-8	0-3
Kevin Patton Jr. G	7	2	3	0	1-3	0-1

Did not play: Timeo Pons, Sir Marius Jones, Milos Vicentic, Kallai Patton, Tajavis Miller

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MSST -6.5	MSST -4.5	UNM +2.0	W UNM covered
Total	151.5	157.0	Over 5.5	W Over
Projected score	—	MSST 80.8 · UNM 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSST -2.9	UNM -1.0
1H total	73.6	79
1H projected score	MSST 38.2 · UNM 35.3	MSST 39 · UNM 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MSST LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-3
UNM LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: MSST neutral site, as favorite; UNM neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UOUO	2-2	50%	2-2
UNM UUOOO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSSTlast 4	2-2 50%	0-4 0%	2-2 50%
UNMlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mississippi St

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −13.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +6.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsKSU	L 77-98	-2.5	L −23.5	164.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

KSU

L 77-98

−23.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −13.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

KSU

L 77-98

+10.5

over 2under 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Mexico

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsETAM	W 76-54	-22.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 8	vsUTA	W 74-56	-13.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsUCR	W 82-68	-19.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	@NMSU	L 68-76	-3.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 20	vsNEB	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−0.5

UTA

W 74-56

+4.5

UCR

W 82-68

−5.5

NMSU

L 68-76

−11.5

NEB

L 72-84

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−13.5

UTA

W 74-56

−15.5

UCR

W 82-68

+8.5

NMSU

L 68-76

+4.5

NEB

L 72-84

+4.5

over 3under 2avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs New Mexico Lobos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Mississippi St

New Mexico

Mississippi St

New Mexico