Nebraska Cornhuskers vs New Mexico Lobos: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETT-Mobile Center · Neutral site

#27NEBNebraska84▲ winner

Final

Closing lineNEB -8.5✓ NEB covered by 3.5

Closing total151.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Nebraska and New Mexico
NEB	This season	UNM
4-0	Record	3-1
3-1	ATS	1-3
2-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NEB 79–73 UNM · ✓ NEB (71%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NEB	43	41	84
UNM	25	47	72

1st half: NEB 43, UNM 25 (NEB by 18). The model had NEB by 3.9 and a total of 71.3 (actual 68).

Team stats

NEB		UNM
27-57 47%	Field goals	26-67 39%
13-35 37%	3-pointers	13-44 30%
17-25 68%	Free throws	7-11 64%
38 5 off	Rebounds	36 8 off
20	Assists	18
6	Steals	11
0	Blocks	2
18	Turnovers	16
16	Fouls	19
28	Points in paint	26
10	Fast-break points	8

Players

NEB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Pryce Sandfort F	33	8	6	3	3-11	1-5
Sam Hoiberg G	31	6	7	6	2-5	1-3
Jamarques Lawrence G	30	21	3	4	6-9	4-7
Rienk Mast F	30	17	4	2	6-12	1-5
Berke Buyuktuncel C	21	5	7	1	2-4	0-2
Bench
Braden Frager F	27	20	8	0	6-8	4-6
Connor Essegian G	15	7	0	3	2-7	2-6
Cale Jacobsen G	13	0	1	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jared Garcia, Leo Curtis, Quentin Rhymes, Will Cooper, Justin Bolis, Henry Burt, Kendall Blue, Ugnius Jarusevicius

UNM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chris Howell G	33	4	4	6	1-4	0-3
Antonio Chol F	30	12	7	1	4-13	3-9
Jake Hall G	28	20	3	2	7-17	6-15
Tomislav Buljan F	27	11	7	1	5-6	1-1
Deyton Albury G	13	3	3	3	1-2	0-1
Bench
Uriah Tenette G	30	10	4	2	4-15	1-8
Luke Haupt G	21	8	4	3	2-2	2-2
Tajavis Miller G	10	2	2	0	1-7	0-5
JT Rock C	8	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Timeo Pons, Sir Marius Jones, Milos Vicentic, Kallai Patton, Kevin Patton Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NEB -8.5	NEB -6.2	UNM +2.3	L NEB covered
Total	151.5	152.1	Over 0.6	W Over
Projected score	—	NEB 79.1 · UNM 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEB -3.9	NEB -18.0
1H total	71.3	68
1H projected score	NEB 37.6 · UNM 33.7	NEB 43 · UNM 25

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NEB WWLW	3-1	75%	1-0	3-1
UNM LWLL	1-3	25%	—	—

Venue/role: NEB neutral site, as favorite; UNM neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB UOUO	2-2	50%	4-0
UNM UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEBlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
UNMlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nebraska

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWGA	W 86-53	-24.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 8	vsFIU	W 96-66	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsUMES	W 69-50	-35.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 15	vsOU	W 105-99	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

+8.5

FIU

W 96-66

+8.5

UMES

W 69-50

−16.5

W 105-99

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

−14.5

FIU

W 96-66

+5.5

UMES

W 69-50

−27.5

W 105-99

+40.5

over 2under 2avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Mexico

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsETAM	W 76-54	-22.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 8	vsUTA	W 74-56	-13.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsUCR	W 82-68	-19.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	@NMSU	L 68-76	-3.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−0.5

UTA

W 74-56

+4.5

UCR

W 82-68

−5.5

NMSU

L 68-76

−11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−13.5

UTA

W 74-56

−15.5

UCR

W 82-68

+8.5

NMSU

L 68-76

+4.5

over 2under 2avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nebraska vs New Mexico

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Nebraska

New Mexico

Nebraska

New Mexico