Texas Southern Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETMemorial Gymnasium (TN) · at Vanderbilt

Final

#22VANVanderbilt109▲ winner

Closing lineVAN -36.5✓ TXSO covered by 1.5

Closing total164.5Over by 18.5

Season records: Texas Southern and Vanderbilt
TXSO	This season	VAN
0-4	Record	4-0
0-4	ATS	3-1
2-2	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TXSO 67–97 VAN · ✓ VAN (100%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TXSO	33	41	74
VAN	60	49	109

1st half: TXSO 33, VAN 60 (VAN by 27). The model had VAN by 18.1 and a total of 76.8 (actual 93).

Team stats

TXSO		VAN
24-53 45%	Field goals	39-73 53%
7-15 47%	3-pointers	14-40 35%
19-29 66%	Free throws	17-22 77%
25 7 off	Rebounds	43 17 off
2	Assists	28
3	Steals	10
3	Blocks	5
14	Turnovers	9
20	Fouls	20
20	Points in paint	44
4	Fast-break points	17

Players

TXSO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Troy Hupstead F	26	8	1	1	2-8	0-1
Anthony Andrews F	25	9	0	0	4-7	1-2
Zytarious Mortle G	23	6	5	0	2-7	1-3
Zaire Hayes G	16	9	0	0	4-5	1-1
Jordan Gorecki C	12	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Jaylen Wysinger G	24	12	2	1	5-13	1-3
Duane Posey G	17	3	4	0	0-3	0-1
Cameron Patterson G	16	4	1	0	2-3	0-0
Alex Anderson G	16	12	1	0	3-5	1-2
Ahmed Nedal G	15	9	2	0	2-2	2-2
Josh Akpovwa F	10	2	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Josh Farmer, Oumar Koureissi, Bryce Roberts, Jordan Hamilton, Kehlin Farooq, Kolby Granger

VAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Tanner G	28	20	2	7	7-9	3-4
Duke Miles G	27	12	4	5	3-7	2-4
Tyler Nickel F	27	20	5	2	6-11	3-8
AK Okereke F	25	11	5	5	5-13	1-8
Devin McGlockton F	23	14	6	2	6-8	2-3
Bench
Tyler Harris F	21	10	8	0	3-10	1-7
Jalen Washington F	18	11	6	4	5-9	0-3
Mason Nicholson C	9	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Chandler Bing F	9	6	1	0	2-2	1-1
Mike James G	5	3	0	1	1-2	1-2
Jaylon Dean-Vines G	4	0	0	2	0-0	0-0
Jayden Leverett C	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Coleson Messer, Frankie Collins, George Kimble III, Miles Keeffe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VAN -36.5	VAN -30.3	TXSO +6.2	W TXSO covered
Total	164.5	164.0	Under 0.5	L Over
Projected score	—	TXSO 66.9 · VAN 97.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAN -18.1	VAN -27.0
1H total	76.8	93
1H projected score	TXSO 29.3 · VAN 47.5	TXSO 33 · VAN 60

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXSO LLLL	0-4	0%	0-3	0-4
VAN WWWL	3-1	75%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: TXSO away, as underdog; VAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXSO UOOU	2-2	50%	0-4
VAN OOUO	3-1	75%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSOlast 4	0-4 0%	0-4 0%	2-2 50%
VANlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas Southern

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +6.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GONZ	L 43-98	+29.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 6	@TA&M	L 70-104	+29.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsSAM	L 90-93	+2.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 15	@TXST	L 67-77	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−25.5

TA&M

L 70-104

−4.5

SAM

L 90-93

−0.5

TXST

L 67-77

−5.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GONZ

L 43-98

−16.5

TA&M

L 70-104

+12.5

SAM

L 90-93

+29.5

TXST

L 67-77

−0.5

over 2under 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Vanderbilt

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIP	W 105-61	-26.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 8	@UCF	W 105-93	-10.5	W +1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 12	vsEKU	W 92-62	-28.5	W +1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsUAPB	W 104-75	-41.5	L −12.5	172.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+17.5

UCF

W 105-93

+1.5

EKU

W 92-62

+1.5

UAPB

W 104-75

−12.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+11.5

UCF

W 105-93

+31.5

EKU

W 92-62

−14.5

UAPB

W 104-75

+6.5

over 3under 1avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas Southern @ Vanderbilt

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas Southern

Vanderbilt

Texas Southern

Vanderbilt