Northeastern Huskies at Princeton Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETJadwin Gymnasium · at Princeton

Final

#135PRINPrinceton70▲ winner

Closing linePRIN -2.5✓ PRIN covered by 10.5

Closing total145.5Under by 18.5

Season records: Northeastern and Princeton
NE	This season	PRIN
2-2	Record	1-3
2-2	ATS	2-2
2-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NE 74–73 PRIN · ✗ NE (53%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NE	20	37	57
PRIN	33	37	70

1st half: NE 20, PRIN 33 (PRIN by 13). The model had NE by 0.7 and a total of 68.5 (actual 53).

Team stats

NE		PRIN
22-59 37%	Field goals	18-45 40%
2-19 11%	3-pointers	6-15 40%
11-18 61%	Free throws	28-37 76%
34 13 off	Rebounds	37 11 off
10	Assists	7
9	Steals	7
5	Blocks	1
13	Turnovers	15
26	Fouls	17
36	Points in paint	20
12	Fast-break points	5

Players

NE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Youri Fritz F	38	16	8	0	7-13	0-0
Xander Alarie F	26	9	8	0	3-7	0-1
Luca Soroa Schaller F	25	8	5	4	2-4	0-0
William Kermoury G	19	2	0	2	1-6	0-5
Miles Newton G	14	0	0	0	0-3	0-2
Bench
Xavier Abreu G	25	17	3	0	7-15	1-5
Mike Loughnane G	23	2	6	3	1-7	0-2
JB Frankel G	11	3	0	0	1-3	1-3
Liam Koelsch C	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Ryan Williams G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Petar Pinter C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ty Francis F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: LA Pratt, Haris Elezovic

PRIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Hicke G	33	8	4	3	2-9	0-3
Malik Abdullahi F	32	11	9	1	3-7	0-1
Jack Stanton G	31	13	5	1	3-7	3-5
Dalen Davis G	29	14	1	1	4-11	1-3
CJ Happy F	18	5	4	1	2-5	1-1
Bench
Landon Clark G	24	3	5	0	1-1	1-1
Jacob Huggins F	22	14	5	0	2-3	0-0
Sebastian Whitfield G	10	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Jacob Hammond F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jake Sussberg, Cash McSweeney, Will Kutzler, Ryan Mandes, Cooper Mueller, Zio Kim, Peyton Seals

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PRIN -2.5	NE -0.9	NE +3.4	L PRIN covered
Total	145.5	146.2	Over 0.7	L Under
Projected score	—	NE 73.6 · PRIN 72.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NE -0.7	PRIN -13.0
1H total	68.5	53
1H projected score	NE 34.6 · PRIN 33.9	NE 20 · PRIN 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LWWL	2-2	50%	2-0	2-0
PRIN LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; PRIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2
PRIN OUUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NElast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
PRINlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NE 0–3 PRINPRIN leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · PRIN has won the last 3 meetings · NE 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2024-25	PRIN 79 @ NE 76	NE +7.5	NE W
Nov 25, 2023-24	NE 66 @ PRIN 80	PRIN -12.5	PRIN W
Nov 26, 2022-23	NE 54 vs PRIN 56	PRIN -8.5	NE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northeastern

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBU	L 75-76	-2.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@COLG	W 68-65	+5.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	@HARV	W 77-60	+5.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUVM	L 74-85	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 75-76

−3.5

COLG

W 68-65

+8.5

HARV

W 77-60

+22.5

UVM

L 74-85

−12.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 75-76

+8.5

COLG

W 68-65

−14.5

HARV

W 77-60

−7.5

UVM

L 74-85

+24.5

over 2under 2avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Princeton

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

over 2under 2avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northeastern Huskies at Princeton Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Northeastern

Princeton

Northeastern

Princeton