Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Kentucky Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ETRupp Arena · at Kentucky

#314L-MDLoyola MD46final

Final

#19UKKentucky AP #1288▲ winner

Closing lineUK -35.5✓ UK covered by 6.5

Closing total159.5Under by 25.5

Season records: Loyola MD and Kentucky
L-MD	This season	UK
1-4	Record	3-2
3-2	ATS	2-3
2-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: L-MD 63–95 UK · ✓ UK (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
L-MD	20	26	46
UK	50	38	88

1st half: L-MD 20, UK 50 (UK by 30). The model had UK by 19.3 and a total of 73.7 (actual 70).

Team stats

L-MD		UK
18-62 29%	Field goals	37-76 49%
7-33 21%	3-pointers	10-27 37%
3-8 38%	Free throws	4-9 44%
33 9 off	Rebounds	56 18 off
8	Assists	21
5	Steals	11
5	Blocks	6
16	Turnovers	9
10	Fouls	9
16	Points in paint	52
3	Fast-break points	33

Players

L-MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jacob Theodosiou G	30	6	4	0	3-12	0-5
Braeden Speed G	28	5	6	0	2-6	1-4
Jordan Stiemke G	23	6	3	0	2-9	2-5
Jonas Sirtautas F	21	1	1	3	0-3	0-2
Sam Springer F	18	0	0	0	0-4	0-3
Bench
Emmett Adair F	20	6	4	4	3-11	0-6
Tyson Commander G	15	3	2	0	1-5	1-2
Troy Cicero Jr. G	14	7	3	0	2-4	2-3
Sebastien Emenalo F	13	6	2	0	2-3	1-2
Everett Barnes F	7	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Carter Berg-McLean G	6	4	2	1	2-2	0-0
Garrett Brennan G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ben Menker G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Peter Sposito G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Goap Kodi

UK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Denzel Aberdeen G	28	11	8	6	5-7	0-1
Kam Williams G	26	13	9	4	5-9	1-4
Otega Oweh G	24	11	5	2	5-9	1-3
Malachi Moreno C	23	10	8	2	5-10	0-0
Collin Chandler G	21	13	1	0	5-12	3-6
Bench
Jasper Johnson G	27	9	3	5	3-9	2-5
Brandon Garrison F	20	6	11	1	3-7	0-1
Trent Noah F	16	6	4	1	2-4	2-4
Andrija Jelavic F	12	9	4	0	4-7	1-1
Walker Horn G	2	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Zach Tow F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne, Mo Dioubate, Jaland Lowe, Reece Potter

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UK -35.5	UK -32.2	L-MD +3.3	L UK covered
Total	159.5	157.4	Under 2.1	W Under
Projected score	—	L-MD 62.6 · UK 94.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UK -19.3	UK -30.0
1H total	73.7	70
1H projected score	L-MD 27.2 · UK 46.5	L-MD 20 · UK 50

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
L-MD LLWWW	3-2	60%	2-0	2-1
UK LWLWL	2-3	40%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: L-MD away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
L-MD UUUOO	2-3	40%	1-4
UK UOOOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
L-MDlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
UKlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Loyola MD

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTOW	L 56-67	+8.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsNJIT	L 64-66	-10.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsSTO	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 16	@FAIR	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 19	@DUQ	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−2.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−12.5

STO

W 74-63

+4.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+2.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−18.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−9.5

STO

W 74-63

−1.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+31.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+19.5

over 2under 3avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kentucky

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

over 3under 2avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola MD @ Kentucky

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Loyola MD

Kentucky

Loyola MD

Kentucky